It’s a a special time around Jags HQ this week. Why you ask? Well….the Jags cashed in 5 of 6 leagues!!!! So, as anyone would, we partied!
But seriously, we are professionals (kinda…not really) so we look forward to Week 2 as we wonder “How can we follow that up?” Well kids let me tell yinz, that’s a tough act to follow. Chris’ Payoffs last week scored 157.48 DKpts, good for an average of 4.5x value return. Meanwhile DJ’s Payoffs scored 113.76 DKpts good for 3.53x value. Now, I will admit that Chris is the better DFS’er, but when you write about the highest salaried player at most positions it will usually reflect in the final tally as it did here. Let’s hope this week is different in terms of content, but the same in terms of results.
Alright, enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it – Who yinz got?
Chris – Case Keenum ($5,800 vs OAK) – Quite the eventful debut for Case… 329 yards, 3 TDs, 3 picks, and a 5x value return. Yes. Please. There are a lot of quarterbacks in great match-ups this week (re: Brees, Big Ben & Rivers), but there is something so inviting about Case Keenum being the guy somewhere. The Broncos are 4.5 pt favorites at home and get a Raiders team who surrendered 233 yards and 2 TDs to Goff and the Rams during Week 1. All reports out of Denver in the preseason were that Keenum and Emmanuel Sanders had developed a nice repertoire. The post-Mack Raiders defense looked passive and on their heels all day. The Broncos WR core aren’t exactly in the middle of their respective prime’s anymore, but to me this team feels like a team full of players with something to prove, and a quarterback at the helm with his first opportunity to be the starter with no pressure. I expect a big year from Keenum and I think Week 2 will be another step forward.
DJ – Patrick Mahomes ($6,100 @ PIT) – Boy, was I wrong on Mahomes last week. He put up incredible numbers (256 yards, 4 TDs, 0 Ints) against a formidable defensive unit and this week he gets a not-so formidable unit when he comes to Pittsburgh. Historically, the Steelers have been the bane of the Chiefs. Well, the past few years anyway. Kansas City could never move the ball on the ‘lers D, but this year things are different. In the past the Chiefs had “Checkdown Charlie” himself, Alex Smith leading the offense. This year they have the gun-slinging young buck Patrick Mahomes. Ask any Pittsburgher what the Achilles heel of the Steelers defense is and I’m sure you’ll get a variety of answers, but one that will keep popping up will be the inability to stop the big play. The new look Kansas City offense is build on the big play with speedsters Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill and even Travis Kelce to a lesser extent. I’m buying this match-up and the Chiefs in a high scoring game.
Chris – Cam Newton ($6,600 @ ATL) – Cam turned in an extremely mediocre performance in Week 1 and faces a team in Week 2 that seems to have had his goat for his career. Newton is 6-8 in his career against the Falcons, throwing 18 TDs to 15 Picks in 14 career games. The Panthers offense only mustered up 293 yards from scrimmage last week, good for 28th in the league…yikes. Cam has that explosive potential, but as 5 point dogs on the road, in a game with one of the lowest projected point totals for the week at 44.5, I don’t see Superman making it out of his phone-booth.
DJ – Aaron Rodgers ($6,800 vs MIN) – Any time Aaron Rodgers is this cheap I’d say you have to own him. Only problem is that he’s nursing an injured knee and is going to be a game time decision. Even if he does play it just takes one moment where he turns wrong or a cleat gets caught in the ground and he’s done for the game. Like my fellow Jag said, there are plenty of QBs with good match-ups this week so take your salary there.
Chris – Alvin Kamara ($9,500 vs CLE) – I’m not going to waste anyone’s time here. Just do it. Kamara put up 46.1 DKpts last week….not a typo. What’s in store for his encore? How about a Cleveland Browns team that gave up 38.2 DKpts to James Conner last week in a monsoon. Kamara and the Saints have the comfort of the dome and are HUGE favorites this week, as they look for revenge after getting punk’d by Fitzmagic last week. At this point and until he proves otherwise, as long as Kamara is below $10K he is an auto-lock.
DJ – Tevin Coleman ($5,300 vs CAR) – Not knocking my fellow Jags pick (Kamara is a beast), but how about we write about somebody who isn’t an “auto-lock”? Maybe at wide receiver you can do that (SPOILERS: He doesn’t…it’s another “auto-lock”). Well I’ll try to pick up the slack then. While I am rostering Melvin Gordon this week against Buffalo, I am more excited about the value that Tevin Coleman presents. Devonta Freeman has already been ruled out for this week and that means that Coleman is in line for a heavy workload. Coleman has been remarkably productive in three career games with Freeman out of the lineup, picking up 250 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 57 carries. And it’s not like he needs the volume to be productive. Last week, with only 10 touches (carries and receptions) he was the second highest scoring player on the Falcons offense with 11.5 DKpts. Get those touches up around the 20 mark with that kind of efficiency and we’re talking about a steal at $5,300 this week.
Chris – Christian McCaffrey ($7,000 @ ATL) – Surprise! I don’t like the Panthers this week…big deal. The Swiss Mister never quite got it going against Dallas and I don’t see this week being any different. I’ve been saying it since last year, McCaffrey’s fantasy value is extremely dependent on scoring. He gets decent volume, but probably is still on the low end of first string RBs. Last week he only had 16 touches at a $6.4K price. This week, after barely returning a 2x value in Week 1, Swissy gets a $600 bump in a game as road dogs. McCaffrey 16 touches don’t wet my appetite at this price, when you have other RBs (cough cough, James Conner) who are a little cheaper and nearly guaranteed 30 touches. As always with Run-CMC, you want him to be the king of (the) rock, but it’s tricky.
DJ – David Johnson($8,200 @ LAR) – David Johnson is a great running back and if you have him in season long formats you’re rolling with him every week. In DFS however, you get the option to ignore him this week in a tough road match-up against the stout Rams defense. Let’s face it, the Cardinals offense isn’t going to be one to write home about this year unless you’re writing about how you wish Johnson was on a different team. A low scoring offense plus a high scoring Rams offense equals…not a lot of volume for David Johnson. Last week in a 24-6 loss to the Redskins, he only saw 14 touches and salvaged his day with a touchdown. Without the TD he would have turned in a miserable 11.7 DKpts on an $8,800 salary. Woof! Hard pass for me this week.
Chris – Antonio Brown ($8,800 vs KC) – RE: Kamara. Just do it. This selection is ½ statistics driven and ½ narrative driven. Last week in a torrential downpour, Brown had 16 targets. Ending the game with 9 catches for 93 yards and a TD for a cool 24.3 points. What’s sad, is it felt as if Brown wasn’t even there last week. We’ve become so accustomed to his ridiculous numbers that his performance last week was possibly below expectations at this point. Brown averages 99.2 YPG against the Chiefs in his career, with 4 TDs in 5 games (regular season). Here’s the kicker… In 57 career home games, Brown has 41 TDs and averages 91.5 YPG. Comparatively, in 59 career road games, Brown only has 19 TDs and averages 81.2 YPG. Alright, time for the narrative half of the equation. This is such an Ben & AB game isn’t it? A let down in Week 1 on the road, the home opener, and more importantly he’ll have Home-Ben throwing to him. For those of you unfamiliar, Road-Ben is as frustrating as a quarterback can possibly be…but Home-Ben is where dreams are made. Call God .
DJ – Dante Pettis ($4,000 vs DET) – Did…did he…did he just talk about Alvin Karama AND Antonio Brown?
I’m sorry folks…I thought this week might be different, but, alas, ’tis not!
Of course they’re going to produce; you know it, I know it, hell even the teams they’re going against know it. And, obviously, Chris knows it.
Hey, great job Chris!
Alright moving on. With Marquise Goodwin sidelined for the Niners game against the Lions it was announced that Dante Pettis would be getting the start in his place. Last week in his replacement of Goodwin, Pettis hauled in 2 of 5 targets for 61 yards and a score. This was against a very solid Vikings defense and without Pettis seeing first team snaps in practice all week. Fast forward and Pettis has worked with the first team all week and figures to fill the void left by Goodwin. Look for an uptick in targets this week, as Pierre Garcon will draw the match-up against Detorit’s top corner Darius Slay. All of these reasons plus a very very friendly price tag ($4,000 for a starter!?) are why I’m rostering Pettis this week.
Chris – Mike Evans ($7,300 vs PHI) – No way Tampa Bay can repeat their Week 1 performance, right? Right. Especially not against the defending Super Bowl Champions. I couldn’t tell if Philly’s defense was that good, or if Matt Ryan and the Birds were that bad to kick-off the season. DeSean Jackson is currently listed as questionable. Truthfully, Jackson sitting probably hurts Evans. Sure, he’ll get an uptick in targets. However, he’ll also be the priority for the Eagles defense then, too. Regardless, Evans at $7.3K is tough. Taking last week out of the equation, Evans only reached 3x value at $7.3K one time last year. Once. Evan’s sweet spot is in the mid-high $6Ks, but at this price point against a solid defense in Week 2, he is an easy pass for me.
DJ – Amari Cooper ($6,600 @ DEN) – Not going to bore you. Cooper hasn’t ever lived up to his hype or potential in his 3 year and 1 game career. Sure the Raiders say they’re going to make getting him the ball a priority, but we’ve heard this story before. I, personally, like to roster high floor individuals and Cooper’s floor is about as low as anyone’s in the game. He’s not worth the headache.
Chris – Ricky Seals-Jones ($2,900 @ LAR) – It’s no secret what Jared Cook did to the Rams defense last week. Sheesh. Do I expect that from RSJ? No chance. At $2.9K, it’s no secret what we are chasing here… One. Single. Score. Paying up across the board makes the TE and Flex positions quite difficult and you have to take shots. Seals-Jones was on the field for 92% of offensive snaps, and was targeted 6 times last week. RSJ had a few break-out performances last year, registering games of 20.4 DKpts and 17.2 DKpts, so the “boom” potential is there. With the Rams defense focus geared towards David Johnson, let’s see if our boy can Fly Like an Eagle (Cardinal?)…that was a poor attempt at a Seal joke, even for me.
DJ – Jordan Reed ($5,000 vs IND) – This one will be controversial here at Jags HQ (see below). Jordan Reed’s first game action since Week 8 of 2017 saw him garner 5 targets, of which he caught 4 of them for 48 yards and a touchdown. Now, those aren’t great numbers, but considering the Redskins want to ease him back into game action and that they jumped out to big lead early, they aren’t anything to be upset with either. Redskin QB, Alex Smith, helped elevate Travis Kelce to an elite tight end during his tenure in Kansas City. When healthy, Reed was already one of the premier tight ends in the game without Alex Smith. Now all “Checkdown Charlie” needs to do is feed him the ball.
Chris – Jordan Reed ($5,000 vs IND) – It’s still too early to really determine TE jags. One week looks at offenses don’t exactly present the whole picture. Reed looked to be a somewhat active part of the Redskins offense last week, but his value came from the touchdown. The more the Redskins utilize Chris Thompson and AP, the worse things probably are for Reed. The aforementioned RBs have had success in the red zone, which is where Reed will need to get his value. The match-up against Indy looks favorable, but at $5K for a TE I basically need a guaranteed score or 6-8 targets (i.e., Gronk, Ertz, Kelce). Reed isn’t a sure bet in either case, so I’ll save my salary for most definitive volume.
DJ – Kyle Rudolph ($4,200 @ GB) – Speaking of tight ends with target issues, Kyle Rudolph enters Week 2 after only seeing 2 targets last week. Yikes! He had 1 catch for 11 yards and a touchdown. Praise the lord for that touchdown!
Kirk Cousins spreads the ball around and you know that Diggs and Thielen will get their looks which leaves Rudolph not able to join in on their reindeer games. Poor Rudolph!
Rostering Kyle Rudolph this week will give you that feeling too.
Chris – James Conner ($6,700 vs KC) – I’m half cheating here. Conner is my RB2 for the week, but he is important enough to mention (and is an easy write-up). Conner’s 38.2 DKpts output last week surpassed even my greatest hopes, and now (probably to my detriment) the bar has been raised. Conner had 36 total touches last week and will more than likely see 25+ touches again. Conner’s price didn’t correct to a point where he doesn’t make sense. That volume alone makes his price point worth it and I expect another big game statistically, as the Steelers Chiefs match-up has one of the highest projected point totals, and Conner as a home favorite should reap the benefits of those projections. Overall advice for the week… Lock in Kamara, lock in Conner, then figure out the rest.
DJ – Emmanuel Sanders($6,200 vs OAK) – Every now and then I hit a home run on a FLEX play and Week 1 felt like a grand slam. Sanders went off to the tune of 10 catches for 135 yards and a touchdown, good for 32.5 DKpts. Well if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I’m sticking with “Little” Emmanuel this week against a Raiders team who surrendered 233 yards and 2 touchdowns to Jared Goff and the Rams in Week 1. Like I said last week, Keenum is a huge upgrade at quarterback and he and Sanders have a special rapport that will continue to show in Week 2.
Chris – New York Jets ($2,500 vs MIA) – J.E.T.S. Jets. Jets. Jets….Nothing to build off of, just always wanted to work that in. Clearly the Jets aren’t going to put up another 26 burger, but they have a good match-up in a spot where I am (1) backed into a defense based on salary restraints (thanks Kamara and AB…) and (2) chasing Vegas totals. The Dolphins and Jets game features the lowest over/under according to Vegas, and the Jets are favorites. Done. Based on the studs I have rostered going into the week, I can’t be choosy here and I feel confident that the Jets can muster a turnover or two solely based on their confidence riding from last weeks rout of the Stafford.
DJ – Washington Redskins ($2,700 vs IND) – I’m still not buying Andrew Luck is fully healthy. That’s about it…oh and the Redskins also only gave up 213 total yards, 6 points against and had 2 sacks, a fumble recovery, and a pick. Those aren’t outstanding numbers, but they’re not not impressive for a game against one of the elite running backs in the league (who they held to 67 total yards).
Check back Sunday morning for the Jags official lineups. Follow us on Twitter @fantasyjags412 – we look forward to hearing from you.
photos from ESPN.com and ninernoise.com
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