What’s on second, why is in left field, and I don’t know is taking a break from the hot corner and is on the gridiron this Sunday. Week 17 marks a few things for fantasy folk such as ourselves. For one, season-long formats have all wrapped up, which is a dread for some of us (congrats to DJ on both a 1st and 2nd place finish in his two leagues) and an absolute treat for others (we’ll leave my finishes out of this). And for two, trying to figure out who the hell will actually play come Sunday is something not even Nostradamus could lock down. Week 17 is fun in it’s own right, it’s basically a dart throw on studs, while relying on back-ups who will see significant volume (or who should see significant volume). We’ll do our best to guide you on this final journey of our site’s inaugural season. Thanks to all who read (or at least told us they read). We are looking forward to the next NFL season already and will do our best to keep current with other sports. Alright, enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it – Who yinz got?
Quarterback
Payoffs:
Chris – Matt Ryan ($5,900 vs CAR) – Matty Ice has been the definition of “meh” this year, but in a near must win game for the Falcons, I expect him to shine. Ryan has performed well in his career against the Falcons, but has really turned it on as of late. In his past 3 games against the Panthers, he is averaging 364 yards passing and just over 2 TDs. This pick doesn’t come without risk though, as Ryan has only eclipsed a 3x value at this price (his second lowest of the year) 4 times. Although, Carolina’s passing defense of late has really slipped, allowing the 3rd most DKpts to opposing QBs since Week 11 (19.8 per game). The Falcons are 5-2 over their past 7 games and are clearly trending up and with a lot to play for. The Falcons are my stack of the week and I expect Matty Ice to carry the Birds into January.
DJ – Russell Wilson ($6,900 vs ARI) – Much like my fellow Jag has said, I finished in first place in a league where I owed Wilson, so why not ride him into the sunset and hopefully another payday. If not for the past two weeks where Wilson has underperformed and Todd Gurley’s monster fantasy playoffs, Wilson would’ve been the front runner for fantasy MVP. Wilson has accounted for over 80% of the Seahawks touchdowns this season. That’s insane! Also insane is that Wilson’s salary is below $7,000 for the second time since Week 9. In their first matchup, Wilson scored 19.42 DKpts against the Cardinals in Arizona. Wilson averages 25.6 DKpts at home and in a must win game for the Seahawks Wilson will lead the way once again.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Cam Newton ($6,800 @ ATL) – Cam has been as frustrating of a DFS QB as you can imagine. He’s scored in the 30s in DKpts 3 separate weeks, while scoring below 15 DKpts in 5 other weeks. Based on his ups and downs, you could say that Newton is “due” for a big game after posting 16.6 DKpts last week, but I see it differently. The Panthers are locked into the NFC Playoffs and only have an outside change at the #2 seed. Aside from that, there isn’t much to play for other than to possibly spoil the Falcons chance at the 6 seed (although an ATL loss tomorrow still doesn’t guarantee the Falcons will hit the golf course Monday AM). Plus, Newton is only 6-7 in his career against the Falcons, and hasn’t eclipsed 200 yards passing against the Falcons since Week 13 in 2015. In fact, since Week 9 in 2015, Newton has only accounted for more than 1 TD in a game against the Falcons once. That’s right, ACCOUNTED FOR (i.e., passing and rushing)! He also has an average QBR during that span of about 55. Needless to say, I’ve heard a lot of people “locking in” Newton this week but I see it quite differently.
DJ – NONE THAT MATTER – With all the QBs being rested and backups starting in their place, I find it hard to believe that any QB that actually is starting will turn in a bad performance. They are either playing for a playoff spot or auditioning for free agency. Either way I expect a showcase of scoring in Week 17 from the QB position.
Running Back
Payoffs:
Chris – Kenyan Drake ($7.200 vs BUF) – Drake has been my second half Kamara. I will ride or die with him with a disregard for price and prior week’s performance. Truthfully, I’m happy he had a dud last week, as it kept his price point “reasonable” and will deter a lot of other players from rostering him. In Week 15, Drake had a big game against the Bills, rushing for 78 yards and a score, combined with 6 catches for 35 yards out of the backfield for a casual 23.3 DKpt output. Add in the fact that since Week 10, the Bills have been the worst defense in the league against opposing running backs (1,010 yards and 12 TDs (next closest is 8 TDs)), allowing on average 34 DKpts per game, and you have an easy pick for a strange Week 17. *Insert cheesy Drake pun here*
DJ – Derrick Henry ($5,500 vs JAX) – After the news of Demarco Murray’s absence from Sunday’s game I rearranged my lineup to get Henry into it. When given the volume of a starting RB, Henry has averaged double digit DKpt performances. The Jags (team, not us) is a formidable opponent, but actually rank 21st in the league against the run this year, giving up an average of 116.3 yards per game and 19.4 DKpts per game since Week 14. So with Henry getting a lion’s share of the workload on Sunday I expect big things from Henry in a game that doesn’t mean much to the Jaguars.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Devonta Freeman ($5,600 vs CAR) – Alright so I like the Falcons passing attack this week only. Over the past two weeks, Carolina has allowed the fewest DKpts to opposing running backs at 10.3 DKpts/game, while not allowing a TD. Freeman had a breakout game in Week 15 against TB, but besides that game, he has only eclipsed a 3x value at this price twice this year in what has truly been a let down campaign. The saving grace for Freeman is that the Falcons will have to run the ball to open up the passing game, but I don’t look for Freeman to have a big game.
DJ – Zeke Elliott ($8,700 @ PHI) – Wishful thinking going on here. The Eagles are second in the league against the run this season, giving up an average of 19.5 DKpts all season. The Cowboys are out of playoff contention and should have no reason to play Zeke extensively. I haven’t heard any news one way or another if the Cowboys plan to play their starters, but either way I don’t see a lot of work in Elliott’s future. Save the $8,700 and spend up elsewhere.
Wide Receiver
Payoffs:
Chris – Julio Jones ($8,200 vs CAR) – If you are going to stack, why not use the team’s WR1. Julio has truly had a disappointing year by his standards, specifically his scoring ability (or lack thereof) with only 3 TDs on the year. However, Julio is coming off of a nice game last week (24.9 DKpts), and heads into a basically must win game against a Carolina passing defense that has been brutal of late. Since Week 10, the Panthers have allowed 46.5 DKpts to opposing WRs, the most in the league by over 6 DKpts. Even worse, in the past 2 games, the Panthers are allowing 52.2 DKpts per game to opposing WRs. This fact alone has me rostering both Jones and Sanu this week, as I look for the Falcons to open up the passing game and march into January as the NFC 6 seed.
DJ – Marquise Goodwin ($6,600 @ LAR) – After a down week against the Jaguars, Goodwin gets a better matchup against the Rams who are resting multiple starters on both sides of the ball. Jimmy G’s favorite target since taking over as the 49ers QB, Goodwin has averaged 16.4 DKpts per game. That is elite WR numbers for a guy that rarely finds the endzone, only 1 TD all season. Imagine if he was able to find the endzone on a somewhat regular basis. Sounds like Julio Jones amiright Chris? The only difference is the $1,600 savings which can be spent on other things.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Marvin Jones Jr. ($6,500 vs GB) – Since his Week 12 breakout of 31.9 DKpts, Jones has not eclipsed 13 DKpts one time. Jones and the Lions have nothing to play for Sunday other than a little NFC North pride and possibly a winning record. For some reason, Jones’ price point has yet to correct itself for his recent blunders, with a Week 17 price point that is his second highest of the entire year…makes sense right? Eh, not so much. Since Week 12 (breakout game for Jones), the Packers defense has ranked in the top 10 for DKpts allowed to opposing WRs. Combine a tough matchup, with literally nothing to play for (will Stafford even play 4 quarters?), and you have the perfect recipe for a Jag.
DJ – Adam Thielen ($7,600 vs CHI) – Thielen has enjoyed a breakout season, but has been quiet as of late. 4 out of his last 5 games have been under 10 DKpts as Stefon Diggs seems to have taken over the number 1 job again. Not saying that things can’t change, but the Vikings are already locked into a playoff spot so who knows how long the starters will play. Even if the starters play a significant amount of time, I could envision a scenario where Teddy Bridgewater plays most of the game and looks towards his favorite target (Diggs) and leaves Thielen out in the cold Minnesota air.
Tight-End
Payoffs:
Chris – Rob Gronkowski ($7,000 vs NYJ) – Just lock it in. I’m not going to waste your time with anything here.
DJ – Jimmy Graham ($4,800 vs ARI) – The obvious stack for the Seahawks, Graham has had a rough go of things lately, scoring only 8.2 DKpts over his last three games. That is a total of 8.2 not an average, but I believe things are looking up for Graham. The Cardinals are a middle of the road defense against TEs, allowing 11.6 DKpts per game this season and Graham already torched them in their first matchup, scoring 20.7 DKpts. He seems to have the Cardinals number so he will be in my lineup come Sunday.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Greg Olsen ($5,600 @ ATL) – Atlanta has shut down opposing TEs all year, specifically recently. Over their past 5 games, the Falcons rank 2nd in the league against opposing TEs, allowing on average 10.9 DKpts per game and only 1 TD during that entire span. Pair that with Newton’s weak performances against the Falcons and Olsens strange season, and it’s just not a place to pay up, specifically at this price. Olsen has only eclipsed 5.7 DKpts one time in his 6 games played, highlighted by a 29.6 DKpt output in Week 15 and lowlighted by his 0 DKpt output in Week 14. I’m cold on the Panthers this Week and have no interest in Olsen at all.
DJ – Greg Olsen ($5,600 @ ATL) – See above. Could also say Kelce here with Mahomes getting the start under center, but I don’t look for Kelce to play long enough to be a Jagoff and not a cop-out.
FLEX
Payoffs:
Chris – George Kittle ($2,800 @ LAR) – Jimmy G has possibly changed this young man’s career outlook single handedly. I’m not saying Kittle is poised to be the next great TE, heck he’s not even his own teams TE1, but I do think he is a decent dart toss for Week 17. The Rams are resting basically their entire team and the Niners have nothing to prove. With Celek out last week, Kittle turned in a 13.2 DKpt game, which at this price point is a grand slam. Celek will be back, but even in games recently when both have played, Kittle is involved (even if it’s just a few catches a game). The salary flexibility I’m able to get elsewhere by rostering a guy like this is worth it. Even if he has an average game by his own standards (6.6 DKpts), that will still be a 2.4x return which is still fine.
DJ – Carlos Hyde ($4,900 @ LAR) – Hyde has been a roller coaster of a player these past four weeks scoring as high as 16 DKpts and as low as 5.9 DKpts. This week he gets a Rams defense that has been the seventh worst in the league against the run this season and are resting starters (I feel like I’ve said that before). Hyde has been involved in every way possible in the offense this season, catching 57 passes and accounting for 225 rushes this season. The offensive outlook seems much brighter under Jimmy G’s guidance and the final game of the season will show the league what to expect from the 49ers next season. Spoilers: a much better offensive team.
Defense/Special Teams
Payoffs:
Chris – San Francisco 49ers ($2,100 @ LAR) – No Goff, no Gurley, and probably no Woods, Kupp, or Watkins. I couldn’t even begin to guess what the Rams offense is going to look like this Week, and therefore for a casual $2.1K I have no problem rostering the 49ers defense. Yes it’s a dart through, but again, for $2.1K I’ll take a risk. Last week against JAX the 49ers D/ST put up 12 DKpts, their first time eclipsing the double digit mark. Who knows, maybe Jimmy “Canton, OH” G has waved his magic wand over the Niners defense too.
DJ – Atlanta Falcons ($2,500 vs CAR) – As my fellow Jag would say, “Go Falcons”. Building off of his Jagoff pick of Cam Newton, I’m taking the Falcons defense to shut him down in a must win game for the Dirty Birds. Playing in Atlanta, the Falcons have average 6.6 DKpts per game and I’m foreseeing Cam Newton gifting much more than that this week.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,000 @ TEN) – This goes against how I’ve been rostering defenses the past few weeks, but the Jags (team, not us) head into a match-up that doesn’t suit them so well for a few reasons. One, they have locked in the 3 seed and literally have nothing to play for. Two, the Titans are in a must-win situation and will be coming out guns blazin’. And three, during their Week 2 matchup, the Titans hung 37 pts and 390 yards on the Jags (team, not us) for a lofty -1 DKpt output. Price means everything to me this week, and saving the extra bucks to pay up for multiple studs makes a $4K investment at D/ST a hard sell for me.
DJ –Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,900 vs CLE) – Really I’m just adding the ‘Lers here so that they will not lose to the Brownies. My defensive Jagoffs seem to have a way of outscoring my Payoffs so this is a homer pick.
Check back Sunday morning for the Jags official lineups. Follow us on Twitter @fantasyjags412 – we look forward to hearing from you.
Fantasy Jags 