This week could prove to be a seminal moment for franchises moving forward. It could be the beginning of stories that you will tell your grandchildren whether they want to hear them or not (spoilers: they probably won’t want to hear them). But either way you will call to them: “Yinz younginz come mere. Don’t ask how’s come! Just bring the capicola and egg Primanti’s and sit down ovaderr while I tell you what life like in my day (Translation: Hey grand kids, come here. Don’t ask why! Just bring the sandwiches and sit over there while I tell you what life was like in my day). You will continue by telling them that you remember where you were when Jimmy “The Great One” Garoppolo made his first start for the 49ers and when Geno Smith was considered to be a better QB option than any of Peyton Manning’s brothers. Yes, even Cooper. You also add in that you remember when the Fantasy Jags (who I’m sure at this point in the future are household names and the premier fantasy pundits) overhauled their website and you, also, remember when Bobby Boucher showed up at halftime and the Mud Dogs won the Bourbon Bowl. Those were there days! Anyway, enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it – Who Yinz Got?
Quarterback
Payoffs:
Chris – Case Keenum ($6,000 @ ATL) – Keenum is averaging 23.02 DKpts since taking over as the Vikings starting QB in Week 8, and continues to have his price set based upon his season long stats. Coming off of a turkey day performance of 3 total TDs, Keenum faces an Atlanta team that has given up the 9th most DKpts to opposing QBs since Week 8. I love this game this week and plan on targeting it. We have ourselves a matchup of two top NFC teams, with the Falcons as -2.5 favorites at home in a game with the third highest O/U at 47.5 pts. The Case race is on in ATL this weekend as Keenum and crew continue slugging wins.
DJ – Brett Hundley ($5,100 vs TB) – Last week I was advocating spending big at QB and the result was a payday, so I figured if it ain’t broke….try to fix it anyway because it’ll break eventually. Speaking of breaks, Hundley has been getting the starts for the Packers after Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 against the Vikings. Since entering that game in relief, Hundley owns a 5:7 TD to INT ratio. Yikes! So, why is he going to pay off this week? Two reasons: 1.) The matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have given up the sixth most DKpts to opposing QBs on average this season, 18.7 DKpts to be exact. 2.) Hundley is coming off a breakout performance against the ‘lers which saw Hundley post his first multi-touchdown performance of the season. A QB on the rise facing a struggling defense is my definition of a Payoff.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Derek Carr ($6,100 vs NYG) – It’s no secret Carr has been a disappointment this year, and this isn’t the week for him to rebound. The Giants are in the bottom 3rd in the league in DKpts surrendered to opposing QBs, but Carr will be without his top two wide receivers, with Cooper out due to injury and Crabtree sitting in time-out for crying over a broken do-over chain (hey, we understand). Talib hasn’t showed up to Jags (us, not team) Central quite yet, but I have a feeling DJ wouldn’t take kindly to having his chain ripped off his neck. Carr will have no weapons in a juicy matchup, and honestly who knows what to make of this game. There are plenty of good QB options in this price range, there is no reason to roll the dice on a guy who has only eclipsed 3x value at this price point in 3/10 games. The floor isn’t there, and the ceiling isn’t either.
DJ – Cam Newton ($6,800 @ NO) – Welcome back to the Jagoff list Mr. Cameron Newton, it’s been oh so long since you’ve had the pleasure of gracing this prestigious list and yet it seems like just yesterday. Newton left owners reeling after a disappointing Week 12 performance that saw Cam score a mere 17.52 DKpts against a New York Jets defense that ranks as the 11th friendliest defense to opposing QBs. Now, Cam faces a Saints defense that should return rookie sensation Marshon Lattimore to cover Devin Funchess. Add in Greg Olsen’s unknown status and the emergence of Christian McCaffrey as a legitimate running threat and you have a recipe for another bad Cam performance.
Running Back
Payoffs:
Chris – Jordan Howard ($6,500 vs SF) – In weeks following a sub-10 DKpt performance this season, Howard has put up the following numbers: 35.4 DKpts, 21.6, 18.1, and 21.5. Well, Howard was not welcomed to the City of Brotherly Love last week, and put up a resounding 3.9 DKpts not even netting 1 yard per carry. Based on how his season is going, Howard is right on time for a big week. Aside from fate, Howard is facing a 49ers defense that ranks LAST in DKpts given up to opposing backs. It doesn’t look like John Fox is letting Trubisky completely run the show on offense yet either, so I expect Howard to get a lot of volume in this game and be put in a good position to have a solid week.
DJ – Rex Burkhead ($5,000 @ BUF) – Rex Burkhead has carved himself out a nice piece of the high scoring New England offense. Last week against the Dolphins the game script called for a heavy dose of Dion Lewis between the twenties and Burkhead in the red zone as the touchdown maker. Going into the season there was some speculation as to whether Burkhead or Mike Gillislee would take over as the goal line back. After returning from injury, it seems that the answer in Burkhead, as Gillislee has been a healthy scratch the past few weeks. With the touchdown upside and targets still to be had in the passing game, I like the situation “Sexy” Rexy finds himself in.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Kareem Hunt ($6,900 @ NYJ) – Why is Hunt still this expensive? WHY is Hunt STILL this expensive? … WHY IS HUNT STILL THIS EXPENSIVE?! That…is expert analysis and why we get paid the big bucks.
DJ – Tevin Coleman ($7,000 vs MIN) – With Freeman being cleared after his concussion I expect him to retake his starting job this weekend against the Vikings. With that, it renders Coleman as an obvious Jagoff this week. Why spend $7,000 for a backup running back? Actually I believe that neither Falcons running back will worthy of rostering this week, but Coleman’s outrageous price tag catapults him ahead (behind?) Freeman in Jagoff status. The Vikings defense is the 2nd toughest in the league to opposing running backs and with the high scoring expected in this game from my fellow Jag the touches simply won’t be there for Coleman.
Wide Receiver
Payoffs:
Chris – Adam Thielen ($7,500 @ ATL) – Did I mention I love this game?? Thielen has been an absolute stud this year, and his price has not corrected itself for his recent output. Since Week 8 (I sense a theme here), Thielen has averaged 24.65 DKpts, above a 3x value for his price point. Let’s be real though, this guy’s been Thielen himself all year and it won’t slow down in Atlanta. Atlanta’s defense has been solid against the pass this year, but that hasn’t stopped Thielen before, who recently put up gaudy numbers against the Rams and Browns, whose pass defenses both rank higher than Atlanta. A perfect stack situation for Keenum, the Vikings are on a quest for a bye and look to sail into ATL with victory in mind.
DJ – Davante Adams($6,500 vs TB) – The crown jewel of the Green Bay stack, Davante Adams has eclipsed his DKpt average in the past three games. Since taking over the starting QB job, Hundley has shifted the focus of the Green Bay passing attack from Jordy Nelson to Davante Adams. As the new found #1 in the receiving corps, Adams faces a matchup against the woefully dreadful Tampa Bay Bucs pass defense. If you remember back to last week, the Bucs were torched by Julio Jones (Atlanta’s #1) for 253 yards and two touchdowns. Do I think Adams gets these totals? No, but boy do I hope so. Adams, however, will hang big numbers on this secondary and will continue to get the majority of targets from Hundley
Jagoffs:
Chris – Keenan Allen ($8,300 vs CLE) – I swear I’m not crazy. The eeeeeeasy pick would be Sterling Shepard *ahem*, but it’s Week 13 and I’m hitting my stride (not really, but let’s go with it). Let me be clear. Keenan Allen is still a great pick for this weekend, but just not at $8.3K. The Browns rank 6th in the league in DKpts surrendered to opposing WRs and Allen has only eclipsed a 3x value at this price 2 times this whole year…the past two weeks. Is this just what Allen is now? A top 2 fantasy WR? I’m not buying. It’s getting to the point of the year too when you expect Cleveland to just have one of “those games” where they can finally get their first win. I’m not saying it’s coming this week in LA, but for $8.3K I better have a guaranteed 20-25 DKpt output, and even with his recent outburst I just can’t commit. Now DJ, what was I saying about easy, cop-out picks??
DJ – Sterling Shepard ($7,000 @ OAK) – Just because his starting QB got benched doesn’t mean he’s a cop-out right? What? It is a cop-out? I don’t believe you! What if I also said that even though his starting QB got benched he still will cost you $7,000? Is it still a cop-out now? Really? Still? How about if I add in the fact that teams facing the Raiders don’t throw to their receivers, as evidence by the fact that the Raiders give up the fifth fewest targets in the league to wideouts? If this is still a cop-out then I don’t know what else can be said to convince you otherwise. I do, however, know two words that make this a cop-out….Geno Smith.
Tight-End
Payoffs:
Chris – Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,200 vs LAR) – No lie, if you would have asked for my thoughts on Ricky Seals-Jones on November 15th, I would have had to look him up. That’s ok Rick, this is a “what have you done for me lately” league, and lately he has been a stud. How about a top-5 TE in the past two weeks? Makes sense then that he comes into Week 13 as the 15th most expense TE. You read that right, 15th. Now, I get it – it’s easy to think he can’t possibly continue this trend, right? Just like Ertz couldn’t possibly be worth $7K week in and week out, right? Just like Kamara can’t possibly go from averaging a salary under $4K through Week 6 to the most expensive back in Week 13, right? How about Robby Anderson costing $4.2K until just recently getting a bump in Week 10 (now at $6.3K)? Getting on guys like this early is big in cashing and until his performance change, I’m jumping on the Seal-Team-Ricks bandwagon.
DJ – Rob Gronkowski ($7,300 @ BUF) – I really don’t think this needs an explanation, but just in case….in six career games in Buffalo Gronk has 35 catches for 583 yards and 7 touchdowns. This averages out to 5.8 catches, 97.1 yards and 1.1 TDs per game. Ummmmm, yes please!
Jagoffs:
Chris – Jared Cook ($5,400 vs NYG) – (ESPN 30-for-30 voice) “What if I told you, a west-coast tight end had 1 catch for 2 yards in Week 12, and saw his salary increase $800?” Enter Jared Cook, literally the most frustrating fantasy tight-end I can remember in a long time. I’ve written about Cook as a payoff, I’ve written about Cook as a jagoff, I’ve rostered him on my season-long teams. *Sighhhhhhhhh*. I can’t do it anymore. I don’t care that he’s in a good matchup, he’s proven that doesn’t matter. I don’t care that the Raiders literally have no other receivers going the week, he’s proven THAT doesn’t matter. Cook can go off for a huge game this week and to me, it wouldn’t matter. This is Cook’s highest salary of the season, by far, and I refuse to get clowned again by him. I guess it’s too hot in the kitchen for this Jag.
DJ – Jared Cook ($5,400 vs NYG)- See above!
FLEX
Payoffs:
Chris – Zay Jones ($4,600 vs NE) – I’ve written about the Pats pass defense over the past few weeks, as they truly have flipped the script from the first few weeks of the season. As a unit they’ve been solid, but I did some digging into how that’s impacted opposing receivers. Over the past 3 weeks, the opposition’s top receiver(s) have had the following outputs; Week 12 Landry 15 DKpts, Week 11 Crabtree/Cooper 25 DKpts combined, and Week 10 Sanders 22.7 DKpts. At $4.6K, Zay is a cheap WR1 with Benjamin out again. Jones is averaging 7.6 targets per game since Week 7 and his floor appears to be rounding out around 12 DKpts, which approaches a 3x value off the bat. Add in a score and we’ll be singing “Hit me Zay-by One More Time.” Come on, a little Brittney reference never hurt anybody.
DJ – Marqise Lee ($5,200 vs IND) – If you roster the man enough the law of averages must eventually swing in your favor for him to have a big game. Lee has been a fixture on one of the Jags (us, not team) rosters for better or worse for some time now. And lately it’s been more worse than better. But everything’s coming up Marqise this week. With Allen Hurns set to miss another game and an Indianapolis secondary that has been less than spectacular this IS the week that everyone at Jag headquarters has been waiting for…a Marqise Lee showcase game. Please don’t let us down Marqise!
Defense/Special Teams
Payoffs:
Chris – New England Patriots ($3,300 @ BUF) – It’s December. That means Old Saint ‘Chick has his bag of coal ready for all AFC East foes, and the Bills are certainly on the naughty list. The Pats D/ST is averaging 11 DKpts since Week 6, and have exceeded 3x value at this price point in 3/6 weeks during that span. I hate the Pats with a burning passion that would melt snow on even the whitest of Christmas’, but the frugal move is to roster this defense that for some reason continues to remain grossly unpriced.
DJ – Houston Texans ($2,400 @ TEN) – This pick is entirely based upon Jadeveon Clowney being able to chase down Marcus Mariota. Mariota has been terrible recently, tossing an interception in four straight games (including 6 in his previous two). The Texans may be without key pieces on the defensive side of the ball, but there are still enough weapons to give Mariota trouble.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Tennessee Titans ($3,400 vs HOU) – Alright so Houston has a problem, what else is new with that franchise? But they aren’t completely worthless on offense, and the Titans defense hasn’t wowed anybody all year. They are in a good looking matchup, no doubt. But Tennessee’s defense ranks in the bottom 3rd of the league in passing yards and points allowed this year. Albeit, their run defense has proven to be legit, the Texans offense moves through the air. The Titans are the 5th most expensive D/ST this week and have only eclipsed 10 DKpts once since Week 8.
DJ – Chicago Bears ($3,500 vs SF) – Jimmy “The Great One” starts this one and I will always remember where I was when his reign over the NFC started with a walloping of the Bears. No other explanation needed. Lock it in.
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