The L-Tryptophan has really kicked in for us this weekend. A lazy holiday weekend has led us to a lazy holiday title. Gobble Gobble, Something Thanksgivingy. Enough said, right? I, for one, had 3 seperate Thanksgiving dinners on Thanksgiving day alone, and topped that night of with stuffing myself full of NFL statistics in anticipation of Week 12. Combine that with desserts, leftovers, and a whole bunch of football mashed down our throats (both college and NFL), and that makes for two sleepy jags who roll into the weekend with nothing butter to do than win some cash. I don’t want to cran-bury the lead though, our analysis this week should be savory as I’d imagine neither of us have moved very far from our respective couches. I know we are both confident in our lineups this weekend, and we head into Sunday looking for a little extra gravy. Pumpkin pie, turkey, green bean casserole…I think that’s everything. Alright, enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it – Who Yinz Got?
Quarterback
Payoffs:
Chris – Marcus Mariota ($6,300 @ IND) – For a lot of NFL fans, Mariota has left a lot to be desired this year, with an extremely average sophomore season. His TD/INT is horrendous at 8/10, but he comes into a favorable matchup at Indy. In Week 6 at home against the Colts, Mariota threw for 306 yds, 1 TD, and 1 INT for 18.24 DKpts. Another performance like that would be welcomed. Even with his 4 picks last week against the ‘Lers, Mariota still put up his largest DK output of the season at 21.74 DKpts largely due to his 1 rushing TD. If MM continues to incorporate the run into his arsenal, his fantasy appeal will grow. Indy has allowed double digit fantasy points to every QB this year, and I don’t expect that streak to stop this Sunday. MM and the Titans need to get back to winning games if they want to keep their playoff positioning. It’s make or break time for Mariota; here’s to hoping he makes me a lot of money and breaks the hearts of those in Indy.
DJ – Russell Wilson ($7,000 @ SF) – Going back to the well this week with Wilson (Holy Alliteration!). Last time I rostered DangeRuss he went off for a season high 39.08 DKpts, so why not try again? Wilson has accounted for all but one of the Seahawks offensive touchdowns this season. That’s right, I said one. To say that the Seahawks offense runs through Russ is an understatement. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in his last 5 games for a total of 13 passing touchdowns and also added a rushing touchdown for good measure over that span. In my mind there is no more evidence needed to convince anyone to roster one of, if not the best, fantasy QB this season.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Alex Smith ($6,500 vs BUF) – Flashback to Week 5: the Chiefs are unbeatable, about to go 16-0 and Alex Smith and his small hands will finally waltz into February with a chance at a title. Enter Week 12: the Chiefs are holding onto the division with the LA Chargers surging, Alex Smith, Kareem Hunt and the KC high-powered offense has shockingly come to a screeching halt and Smith’s price has yet to correct itself since the “potential” is still there. Week 11 was the 3rd week in a row that Smith was unable to eclipse 20 DKpts and Week 12 doesn’t look like a good chance either. The Bills defense is in the top-10 in the NFL in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs, and are one of only 5 teams that have more INTs than passing TDs allowed on the year. Smith and the Chiefs stumble again as Bills Mafia rolls into Arrowhead with an offer Andy Reid will not be able to refuse.
DJ – Drew Brees ($6,900 @ LAR) – Not used to putting Drew Brees down this much. Then again the fantasy community isn’t used to Brees performing like Alex Smith has while in KC. Brees has alternated good and bad games in his past four and if the pattern continues, which it will, he’s due for another bad game. In the past, a bad game for Drew Brees was under 300 yards and less than 3 touchdowns. Those days are long gone my friend. With the emergence of the RBs affectionately known as Mark-Alvin Ingramara Brees isn’t relied upon as much to carry the offense which has resulted in his bad games now consisting of, on average, 241.5 yards and 0 touchdowns. Yikes! I haven’t even gotten to the Rams defense who has given up an average of 211.7 passing yards per game. I’d avoid Drew “Not So Cool” Brees this week if I were you.
Running Back
Payoffs:
Chris – Mark-Alvin Ingramara ($16,200 @ LAR) – A wise man once told me, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Welp, we’re back with Ingramara. Honestly, what these guys have accomplished over the past few weeks is insane. They continue to produce week in and week out, and are both easily top-10, if not top-5 backs – yes both. Honestly, I’m not going to waste your time by listing a bunch of stats, and I’m not going to waste my own time researching their excess of productivity. Until these guys slow down, I’m going to continue rostering both.
DJ – Devontae Booker ($3,700 @ OAK) – Okay, I’ll freely admit that I was wearing that Do-Over Chain this week for my Kenyan Drake pick from Week 10. A much less self-confident, a.k.a. smarter, fantasy player would go with a safer choice this week in order to gain back the trust of the readers. Well that’s not me! I’m doubling down with the out of nowhere running backs. Firmly established as the third down back for the Broncos, Booker has increased his work in the rushing game in each of the past three games. Throw in the fact that Paxton Lynch will get the start under center and I foresee a bigger workload ahead for the second year back. Next up is a date with one of the worst rush defenses in football, the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have given up the fifth most rushing yards this season. With Booker’s expanded role, look for him to come close to 3x value (or double digit points). Not bad for a cheap RB option.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Jag Ajagi ($6,200 vs CHI) – Aside from having his first name in his last name (I can’t be the only one who thinks it’s a weird name, right?), there are a few other reasons I’m fading Ajagi this weekend. Since coming to Philly, Ajagi has only averaged 8 touches per game and a DKpt output around 12 DKpts, not even a 2x return. Ajagi’s role in the Eagles offense isn’t exactly carved out yet, as both Blount and Clement have had equal touches since Ajagi joined the squad, with Clement having more production over that period. Jag Ajagi is severely overpriced against a Bears defense that is league average in fantasy points surrendered to opposing RBs, spend up elsewhere as Ajagi hasn’t shown the upside yet this year to support his price jag…I mean tag.
DJ – NONE – After looking at the slate of games and available backs this week I believe that all high priced backs (>$8,000) will be worth paying up for. Hell I even believe in the backs that cost between $5,000 and $6,900. I can’t find one I feel strongly in saying to avoid; therefore, I’m giving a vote of confidence to all RBs playing this week. Don’t make me regret it!
Wide Receiver
Payoffs:
Chris – Alshon Jeffery ($6,300 vs CHI) – Philly looks like the class of the NFC, and that’s primarily due to Carson Wentz. Get the bronze bust ready, because that dude looks like a future hall of famer and someone the Eagles will be very happy to have for the next 10-15 years. Jeffery was a big play threat early on in the year whose fantasy output was contingent upon a homerun or a touchdown. Over the past 3 weeks though, Jeffery is averaging just under 9 targets a game and is setting a strong fantasy floor. Combine that with 4 TDs in the past 3 weeks, and Jeffery easily becomes one of my favorite targets for the weekend. With their Week 10 bye and Week 11 routing of Dallas, Philly will be welcomed home with open arms and be thankful as Wentz and Co. are expected to put on nice Thanksgiving encore.
DJ – Kenny Stills ($4,800 @ NE) – This pick was solidified when Jay Cutler was ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Patriots. Sounds weird, I know, but can anyone tell me who has caught Matt Moore’s, projected starter, last four touchdown passes? If your answer was anything other than Kenny Stills then you’d be wrong. That’s right, Matt Moore has hooked up with Kenny Stills for his past four touchdowns. There is some magical connection between these two and I plan on exploiting it for all it’s worth. Even without Moore, Stills has been proving himself to be one of Cutler’s favorite options, garnering 30 targets in his past four games, 8 in each of the past two. Going against the Pats you have to figure that Miami will be playing from behind in this one and will be heaving pass upon pass downfield to try to make up the deficit. I like Stills (and Landry for that matter) this week.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Mike Evans ($7,400 @ ATL) – Without Winston, Evans is just a mediocre receiver. Fitzpatrick and Evans clearly haven’t found their connection yet, and I don’t think Sunday at Atlanta fixes that. Evans has averaged 8.25 DKpts since Fitzpatrick took over the helm. At $7.4K and against a defense that ranks in the top-10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs this year, I don’t anticipate a coming out party for the second half of the Money Duo (shout-out John Football, first career Fantasy Jags shout-out…congrats). There are much better options at $7.4K to spend up with, or better yet, save your money for a mid-tier receiver and upgrade throughout your lineup. But rostering Evans as the 3rd most expensive WR is worse than awkwardly entertaining your cousins on Thanksgiving…just avoid.
DJ – Julio Jones ($7,700 vs TB) – Although I completely agree with my fellow Jag about Mike Evans, I’m going to the team opposing the Bucs, the Atlanta Falcons. I’ve written about it before and it will continue to baffle me. Julio Jones is having a down year by his standards 54 catches for 786 yards and 1 touchdown and yet he is still one of the most expensive options at WR. I just don’t get it. Julio has only eclipsed 80 yards in 4 games this season and isn’t even averaging 80 yards per game (78.6). Oh, and he’s only found paydirt one time this season. Matt Ryan and the Falcons don’t make it a priority to feature Julio in the redzone and until they start doing so I will continue to make it a priority to avoid him in DFS.
Tight-End
Payoffs:
Chris – Adam Shaheen ($2,600 @ PHI) – I’m low-key hyped about this pick. Rarely do I take huge risks like this and man does it get the juices flowing. Shaheen (nickname pending) has done absolutely nothing all year, except for last week in which he had 4 catches for 41 yards and a TD. Shaheen is a D-II Ashland product, which is slightly concerning given my track record of experiences with Ashland alumni (sup, The Oracle). However, I expect the pride of the Eagles to participate in friendly-fire as Shaheen and daaaa Bears roll into the City of Brotherly Love with nothing to lose.
DJ – Jimmy Graham ($5,800 @ SF) – If I’m going with Russell Wilson then why not also roster his favorite redzone target, JImmy Graham. One of the biggest knocks on the Seahawks offense was that they could never figure out how to use Jimmy Graham. Well they certainly figured that out this season, or the past six games anyway. In his past six games, Graham has scored seven touchdowns over that stretch, averaging 17.01 DKpts. Just by getting to his average over that span, Graham will return 3x value, which sounds like money to me.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Jared Cook ($4,600 vs DEN) – Cook has been the definition of a roller-coaster fantasy player this year with a season high output of 23.6 DKpts, compared to a season low output of 3.4 DKpts. Cook has played in all 10 games this year, and has only eclipsed 10 DKpts four times. Cooks production comes from his volume and yards, as he’s only put the ball in the end zone once this year. If you think it’s a juicy matchup, I’ll direct you back to Week 4 at Denver where Cook put up a measly 7.6 DKpts. It’s certainly a different Denver team now than it was during Week 4 (the game in which Carr got hurt and was replaced), but still, I don’t foresee Cook whipping up anything good this weekend in Oakland.
DJ – Greg Olsen ($4,800 vs NYJ) – Not a ton of analysis needed here. Olsen is going to play in his first game since breaking his foot in Week 2. Even before he broke his foot, Olsen was only targeted six times in five quarters of football. While I do like Olsen moving forward, I would temper expectations for his first game back off of IR.
FLEX
Payoffs:
Chris – Duke Johnson Jr. ($4,600 @ CIN) – I typically stay as far away as possible from guys named DJ, but this Sunday I’m feeling a Brownie over some pumpkin pie. Dukie (intentional nickname…even though I’m rostering him, he’s still a Brown guys come on now) has been consistently average the entire season, which is all I’m asking out of him. Not a high ceiling guy, DJ has been seen his output increase each of the last 3 weeks, with a 16.6 DKpt output last week, his largest since Week 5. Johnson get’s his fantasy appeal strictly in a PPR format, as he is averaging 6 targets per game this season leading to a 13.5 DKpt average. In addition, Crowell is listed as questionable heading into the weekend which is a recipe for more touches for DJ out of the backfield against a Bungles team in the bottom third in the NFL against opposing RBs. The battle for the state of Ohio’s 2nd best football team goes down in Cincy this weekend, and the Eye of the Kizer will be staring down a solid Dukie.
DJ – Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600 vs JAX) – Yes, the Cardinals have a tough matchup against the Jaguars this week. Yes, the same Jaguar team that is one of the best passing defenses in the league. So why am I going with Fitzy this week? Well for one, if I have to bet on someone to catch passes I would put money on Fitz. Second, the Jags (team, not us) star corner Jalen Ramsey is likely to miss this game after injuring his hand in practice this week. Seeing double digit targets in all but four games this season, Fitz is as safe as they come. Even in a tough matchup, Ol’ Reliable will get his DKpts and make owners happy.
Defense/Special Teams
Payoffs:
Chris – Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,100 @ AZ) – I’m done low-balling myself with defenses. “Playing the matchup” hasn’t fared well for me so let’s try a new plan. Most expensive D/ST? Sure, sign me up. The Jags (team, not us) have been ballin’ all year and I want in on the action. I constantly talk about trying to hit 3x value with every position. Well, these guys are averaging a 4x value…AVERAGING 4x! I know D/ST is risky, but there is no other player from a position that comes into the week AVERAGING a 4x. Sure, the Jags (team, not us) have had a few duds, but they have also put up 4 games scoring over 20 DKpts and are facing a team with tons of injuries on offense. At a $4.1K value, I will take my chances with that all day.
DJ – Cleveland Browns ($2,500 @ CIN) – Ummmmmmm…………….. I can’t think of anything to say really. I spent elsewhere and the Brownies just happen to fit my remaining cap. I will say that they have a decent matchup against the Bungles, who, as far as offenses go, rank 25th in the league according to DraftKings. Even though they have never scored double digit DKpts they have also never had negative points. So that’s a positive! I guess it could be worse?
Jagoffs:
Chris – Kansas City Chiefs ($3,700 vs BUF) – Call me crazy, but I still don’t think the Bills have completely lost Tyrod’s head for the year. Sure, playing Peterman was a terrible move, but I’m a conspiracy theorist and enjoy making up false narratives – so here we go… Sean McDermott started Peterman, knowing he was going to blow up, to take the pressure off of Tyrod for the rest of the year because he surely know that Peterman wasn’t ready to start in the NFL…on the road… in the middle of a playoff push. Tyrod is now freed from people clamoring for his replacement and now doesn’t have a single ounce of pressure on his shoulders. If he is a stud, great! He overcame adversity and will torch the Chiefs defense. If he’s a complete dud, none hurt…McDermott ruined his confidence. I think the former, since McDermott clearly pulled this stunt to benefit Tyrod (…trust me) and I think the Chiefs become the beneficiary of a Tyrod coming out party vol. 2.
DJ – Kansas City Chiefs ($3,700 vs BUF) – See above, ‘nuff said.
Check back Sunday morning for the Jags official lineups. Follow us on Twitter @fantasyjags412 – we look forward to hearing from you.
Fantasy Jags 