Who Yinz Got? Week 11 – Do-Over Chain

This week we released our new logo, dubbed the “Do-over Chain” (we promise no inspiration came from The U’s ‘Turnover Chain’).  How fitting?  Each week, at least one jag has spent their Monday wondering, “If I could only have a do-over?”  Now’s our chance.  Each week, we will be releasing our Do-Over article talking about missed opportunities, and swings and misses.  Stay tuned mid-week for these articles, perhaps debuting just in time for some Turkey Day reading.  Alright, end shameless plug.

As we approach December, teams are beginning to sort themselves out as the class of their respective leagues.  *Ahem* The Steelers absolutely obliterated the Titans on Thursday Night Football, Dilly Dilly!  But in all reality, the heros and zeros are starting to show and Week 11 is full of some matchups featuring teams fighting for their lives (Oakland, Dallas) versus teams that are fighting for seeding (NE, Philly).  Only 3 games this weekend have spreads greater than 5.5 pts, with 13 games on the docket.  Jameis Winston is in the news…again (not for eatin’ dubs), and Zeke Elliot is outside of the country training (yes he is still, really, suspended).  Aside from those items, a pretty quiet week in the NFL from a trashy, dumpster fire headline standpoint.  A nice look for the league, but in all reality we enjoy the slip-ups.  It’s ok to admit, we understand.  Alright, enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it – Who Yinz Got?

 

Quarterback

Payoffs:

Chris – Tom Brady ($7,400 @ OAK (Mexico City)) – It literally burns my skin having to write this, but I’m doing it for you guys.  Brady is the top priced QB this week, and the best play without question.  This is a typical Tom Brady game.  The young buck comes trotting into the matchup with the “don’t worry, the league is in good hands at QB” BS story line that will be all over Sunday NFL Countdown, and Brady whoops his ass.  We’ve seen it before, way too many times.  Brady has been living in the $8K range for a few weeks, but has dropped in consecutive weeks after putting up better numbers than earlier in the season.  I’m not sure I understand that, but I’ll take advantage.  The Pats are -5.5 pt favorites on the road (neutral site), with the highest O/U of the week at 50 pts.  I’m not sure which back, receiver, or monster (Gronk) will be on the receiving end of Brady’s Week 11 charity, but I do know he’s poised to perform.  3 TD passes last week was his second highest total of the year, and his 125.4 passer rating ranked third for him personally.  Brady doesn’t throw picks, and the Raiders literally do not have even 1 INT yet this year.  It’s a safe game for Brady with a huge floor and an even higher ceiling.

DJ –  Derek Carr ($6,400 vs NE (Mexico City)) – Carr has been a major disappointment this season, as he has failed to live up to the expectations he set for himself after a successful 2016 campaign. What Carr has done, however, has produce when facing subpar defenses. Averaging 22.69 DKpts when facing a defense in the bottom half of the league. Entering Week 11, the Pats rank dead last in passing yards allowed per game and total yards allowed per game. What this says to me is: shoot-out in the making! This game will be heavily represented on rosters this week.

Jagoffs:

Chris – Derek Carr ($6,400 vs NE (Mexico City)) – Alright, admittedly I had Carr in my initial lineup for the week.  DJ and I converged on who we were going to write about and boom, we both had a Carr stack.  “I volunteer as tribute”, I said, saving DJ the heartache and misery of reconstructing a lineup late in the week – but that’s just the kind of guy I am.  So, why not write him up as my Jag?  As mentioned above in Brady’s write-up, this game features the highest O/U of the week at 50 pts.  Shoot-out right? Not so fast my friend! (sorry, I’m watching College Gameday)  The Patriots started the year getting absolutely torched by the Chiefs, and for some reason have not been able to shake the idea that they have the worst passing defense in the league.  I’m more of a “what have you done for me lately” kind of guy.  Let’s look.  NE first 6 games = 26.5 ppg, 325 passing ypg.  NE last 3 games = 12 ppg, 212 passing ypg.  The Pats rushing defense has still been iffy, but it’s clear they’ve committed to stopping the pass.  I think Carr is in a trap game here, as the season long numbers make the matchup look juicy.  But in true Belichick form, the calendar is about to turn to December and the Pats are looking to be complete team (damnit I hate them so much).

DJ – Matt Stafford ($6,600 @ CHI) –  The Chicago Bears have quietly been shutting down QBs all season, giving up an average of 13 DKpts to opposing QBs. I don’t see that stopping this week as Matt Stafford and the Detroit Lions come rolling into town. Stafford, if you remember correctly, struggled for most of the game against the Browns last week before finally realizing that he was the highest paid QB in the league and should start playing as such. The Browns may have let Stafford off the hook, but the Bears will not. Also going against Stafford is the weather as the Lions (indoor team) venture to Chicago where they’re exposed to the elements.

Running Back

Payoffs:

Chris – Mark-Alvin Ingramara ($15,600 vs WAS) – Yes, both.  One of these guys have eclipsed 30 DKpts in 3 of the last 5 games (Ingram twice, Kamara once).  I’m done trying to pick which one is going to go off, and I’m rostering both.  Combined over the past 5 weeks, here are there DKpts from furthest away to most recent: 46.7, 39.7, 35.6, 41.1, and 61.9.  Each of those matchups were against teams with rushing defenses in the bottom third of the league against RBs from a fantasy perspective, and that’s right where the Redskins are living.  It’s an absolute lock that one of them scores, and it’s about a 99% lock that they combo produces 2 or more TDs on a given week.  I anticipate the Saints to jump out to a big lead and spend most of the second half running the ball.  The 2017 Saints win with defense and a running game…weird right.  And yes, Drew Brees is still there.  But Ingramara has clearly thrust themselves into pole position as the Saints top offensive weapons and I plan on jumping the bandwagon until proven wrong.

DJ – Kenyan Drake ($4,800 vs MIA) –  I’m not a fake person showin’ fake love to you. Kenyan Drake deserves your love. The past two weeks have been very kind to Drake as he has a run of over 40+ yards in each game. Although it has only produced One (touchdown) Dance, Drake has been No Fraud, as he has emerged as the receiving back in an offense that needs some big play ability. Clearly the more talented back in Miami, Drake won’t be Sneakin’ up on Damien Williams anymore. He’ll be passing him on the depth Forever and can truly say that he Started From the Bottom…of the depth chart that is.

Jagoffs:

Chris – Adrian Peterson ($6,000 vs HOU)  –   This one is easy.  Peterson is coming off of another laugher with 21 carries for 29 yards in Week 10 at home against SEA.  The JJ Watt-less Texans still have allowed the fewest DKpts per week to opposing RBs at 18.4 in the entire league!  The Texans will figure to limit the running game and force Drew Stanton to throw the ball.  I expect them to stack the box and basically erase Peterson.  At this price point, there may be nobody with a higher ceiling, but man is his floor low, featuring games of 4.2 and 4.3 DKpts per game with the Cards (and even worse during his time with the Saints).

DJ –  Leonard Fournette ($8,200 @ CLE) –  As many of you know I am not one to take risks with players who are listed on the injury report. Fournette got in limited practice sessions on Wednesday and Thursday which had indicated that he was on track to play on Sunday. However, his absence from Friday’s practice sheds doubt on his availability for Sunday’s game against the Brownies. Doubt is not something you want while spending $8,200 of your salary. And even if Fournette does play he will more than likely be limited by his ankle injury. This kind of risk can not afford to be taken.

Wide Receiver

Payoffs:

Chris – Marqise Lee ($5,500 @ CLE) –  Blake Bortles…I know.  But Lee has cemented himself as the Jags (team, not us) top WR.  Our (us, not team) top WR is neither of us.  In all seriousness, Lee has taken advantage of the extra opportunities he has received this year with a beat up JAX WR core.  Lee has had double digit targets in 3 of his last 4 games, and his price is only starting to correct itself.  Another strong week from Lee and we will see his salary in the mid $6K range.  Lee has averaged 16.8 DKpts over the past 4 games, scoring both of his TDs this year during that span.  It appears he has set his new floor at around 12-15 DKpts, which at this price point is a near lock.  He hasn’t had a true break-out game yet, and this could be his chance.  Although the weather could cause some problems, Lee will easily be the top target and a safe play.

DJ –  Amari Cooper ($6,000 vs NE (Mexico City)) –  I will admit that stacking Raiders this week scares me. Especially Cooper over Crabtree, but I have Cooper in a season long league so I’m doubling down and throwing all my eggs in the Cooper basket (hopefully the basket won’t drop it like Amari does passes). Yes, it’s true, Cooper has trouble holding onto the ball, 5 drops this season (tied for second most in league). But in the four games since Derek Carr’s return from a back injury, Cooper has averaged 11 targets and 6.25 catches. The yardage totals aren’t as impressive aside from the 210 yard explosion against the Chiefs, but the six catches are what I’m focused on. That’s 6 DKpts right off the bat, the yards are just a bonus. The Raiders have made it a point to try and get Cooper more involved in the offense and I’m buying what they’re selling.

Jagoffs:

Chris – Brandin Cooks ($6,600 @ OAK (Mexico City)) –  “But wait, you picked Brady as your QB, aren’t you going to stack?”  Well yes, of course I’m going to stack… just not here.  I’ve been hearing from all the fantasy experts all week that they think “this is a Brandin Cooks game”.  Brady isn’t the kind of guy that focuses in on a receiver and makes it a “him” game.  Cooks is only averaging 14.1 DKpts on the year, which is just barely over a 2x value at this price point.  Cooks price has dropped significantly throughout the year, and is still too expensive for my rich blood (re: my Week 9 victory).  Cooks absolutely could have a huge week, with Oakland’s defense ranking 22nd in the league against the pass and the Patriots being -5.5 point favorites on the road (seriously).  I personally don’t see this as a “Cooks game”, rather I just see it as a “Brady game”.  Who will be the recipient of those scores?  I’m not sure; nobody is with the Patriots.  But I do know that I cannot stand the heat this weekend, and will not be in Cooks kitchen Sunday.

DJ – Mike Evans ($7,900 @ MIA) – Evans has been a frequent visitor to the Jagoff section this season. I can’t blame him for his QB’s miscues, what with the eating W’s and groping an Uber driver (allegedly). The sad part is that Evans is a talented receiver who just needs someone to get him the ball. Even though Miami’s pass defense isn’t all that great, Ryan Fitzpatrick just can’t sling it like he used to. So Evans’ woes will continue and as the highest priced WR this week Evans shouldn’t be touched with a 10 foot pole. And that pole is getting longer and longer each week.

Tight-End

Payoffs:

Chris – Jared Cook ($4,800 vs NE) –  Alright, so I have Carr as my Jag, so what?  Doesn’t mean he isn’t going to score at all – I just don’t think he is in a spot to go off.  I do, however, think (and hope) he can find Cook for a score.  Cook is coming off of a big week in terms of yardage, but didn’t find the endzone.  In fact, Cook only has 1 TD on the year, but gets his value with volume.  The Raiders are going to have to run the ball and use play-action to set up the pass, and this typically fares well for TEs, specifically in the redzone.  The Patriots are averaging 12.8 DKpts given up to TEs this year, surrendering 5 TDs in 9 games and ranking in the bottom third of the league.  I think Carr and Cook hook up for a score or two in this matchup, where the Pats will look to shut down the Killer Cs.  I dub Jared to be the victor of the Week 11 “Cook-off” over Brandin.

DJ – Rob Gronkowski ($7,200 @ OAK (Mexico City)) – Does anything really need to be said here? I’ve rostered an elite tight end most weeks of the season and it hasn’t hurt me yet. In reality Gronk is the safest bet to produce week in and week out on the Patriots offense (aside from Brady, of course). As long as he can be rostered he will be rostered. Don’t @ me, bro!

Jagoffs:

Chris – Charles Clay ($3,900 @ LAC) –  Clay remains in the top-10 in TEs on DraftKings this week, but I can’t figure out why.  The Chargers rank 2nd in the league against TEs, only allowing 1 TD the whole season, and averaging only 9.7 DKpts per week to opposing TEs.  Clay also enters the weekend battling a knee injury, but all signs point to him suiting up.  In his past two games, Clay scored 3.3 DKpts and 5.1 DKpts, respectively.  He will have former Pitt QB Nathan Peterman leading the O for the first time this weekend, with Tygod getting the boot.  The Bills offense rolls into Week 11 with a big question mark, and I can’t imagine Clay molding into a superstar on Sunday.

DJ – Kyle Rudolph ($4,400 vs LAR) – “This town ain’t big enough for the three of us” – Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen to Kyle Rudolph. It’s true, Minnesota’s offense isn’t big enough for all three of them to produce fantasy points. Minnesota is known as the “Twin Cities” so obviously someone in the passing game has to be left out and as long as Case Keenum is under center, Rudolph is that someone. And this week he faces a Rams team that ranks 8th against the tight end position for fantasy purposes. The Minnesota offense runs through Diggs and Theilen and will continue to do so until Teddy Bridgewater takes over under center.

FLEX

Payoffs:

Chris – Rex Burkhead ($3,600 @ OAK (Mexico City)) –  Burkhead has only played in 5 games this year, and has exceeded a 3x value at this price point 3 times.  In his last 2 games (consecutive), he has put up 15.3 DKpts both times.  Dion Lewis appears to have the bulk of the carries locked down, but Burkhead has been more of a threat as a pass-catching back.  In fact, both of Burkhead’s TDs this year were on the receiving end.  I typically have a rule of not rostering any Pats RBs, but with this one I swear I’m not crazy – let’s look at the NE backfield for comparison sake. Lewis is $4.2K this week and has only exceed 15.3 DKpts once this year in 9 games played.  James White is $4.7K, has eclipsed 15.3 DKpts 3 times, but has only eclipsed 16 DKpts once (so let’s call it once).  Mike Gillislee is $3.6K and has not eclipsed 13 DKpts since Week 1.  Burkhead seems to be Belichicks flavor of the month, and at this price point and floor, I think Burkhead is a no-brainer “punt” play.

DJ – Marqise Lee ($5,500 @ CLE) –   My fellow Jag has already written a piece on Lee in this article so I will refer you to Chris’ Wide Receiver Payoff this week. I will add that Lee’s value could not be higher heading into this week. With Allen Hurns unable to go on Sunday, Lee will get even more of a target share than his average. High Floor + High Upside = High-Lee rosterable.

Defense/Special Teams

Payoffs:

Chris – New Orleans Saints ($3,500 vs WAS) – No Reed = NO Saints.  The Saints defense has recorded a turnover in every game since Week 3 and Kirky has thrown a pick in 4 of his last 5 games.  The Saints defense has also recorded 4 or more sacks in 4/9 games this year.  It’s simple; They put up fantasy points and the Redskins are banged up.  The Saints are -7.5 favorites at home, in a game with a 49 pt O/U.  My prediction is that Ingramara puts the Saints up early, and Kirky starts forcing passess to guys like Doctson, Crowder, and Davis…bring on the picks.

DJ – Los Angeles Chargers ($3,000 vs BUF) – The Chargers were a last minute switch. I was originally keeping the Bears in this spot, but once Buffalo announced that Tyrod Taylor was benched and Nate Peterman was getting the start, I couldn’t help but change to the Chargers of Los Angeles. In what will be Peterman’s first NFL start, the Chargers pass rush will welcome him to the NFL the only way they know how; punishment. The Chargers have a mean pass rush and will take every opportunity possible to knock the young Peterman down. Not a particularly well known defense, but one capable of producing a big fantasy outcome.

Jagoffs:

Chris – Arizona Cardinals ($3,200 @ HOU) –  Why? Why is AZ still up near the top on D/ST at DK?  From a fantasy perspective, the Cards are averaging 5.8 DKpts per game, which is 5th worst of any team playing Sunday.  Why are they then priced as the 7th best defense?  The matchup?  I guess so but the Cards have only eclipsed 10 DKpts once this year, and have played SF twice and IND/TB once each with not much luck.  AZ D/ST Week 11 = definition of a Jag.

DJ – Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,000 @ CLE) – It worked last week so why not double down and take the Jags (team, not us) again as a Jagoff. Sure Cleveland’s offense isn’t anything to write home about, but their offense is run through the backs not the passing game. If Jacksonville has any weakness it’s their fantasy points allowed to running backs, giving up a total of 7 total (rushing and receiving) touchdowns to opposing backs. Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson should see a heavy workload in this game and we’ll see just how good the Jags really are. The team, not us. Us Jags have proven time and time again that we are always at the top of the fantasy game. Go ahead and @ me on that!

 

Check back Sunday morning for the Jags official lineups.  Follow us on Twitter @fantasyjags412 – we look forward to hearing from you.

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