Where have we been? Well, there were budget cuts that rained down from Corporate over the past week, limiting our resources to produce your much needed Big Ballin’ N’at nightly report. In all reality, who knew that real life could get in the way? A full-time job take precedent over a fantasy sports blog (who knew?!). Alright, alright… maybe we won’t be here every night there are over 5 games, but I promise to check in with you guys as often as possible. Although write-ups haven’t been flowing, the cash sure has been in NBA DFS for me so far this year. I’m riding a nice 3 day winning streak into the weekend, including a season high of 310 DKpts on 11/1. We have a short 4 game slate tonight, leaving us a good opportunity for a night of studs and duds.
De’Aaron Fox ($5,200 @ DET) – Fox draws the start tonight for Sacramento, coming off of a few days of rest (last played Wednesday). DAF has been a little inconsistent from a fantasy perspective, but I don’t think he warranted a drop in salary of $500 from Wednesday. Add in the fact that the Kings will be without Hill for personal reasons, and you have a recipe for at least 5x value. I anticipate Fox to be on the floor over 30 minutes tonight, even in a game featuring the lowest O/U of the night (194) and going against at Pistons team that is 2nd in the east…seriously. Lucky for us, we don’t need to Kings to win (or be competitive for that matter), but we do need Fox to be on the floor and handle the ball, which he will.
Others – Steph Curry ($9,500), David Nwaba ($3,900)
Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,100 @ MIN) – Smith has averaged 29 minutes in 3 of his last 4 games, and has averaged 24.75 DKpts during those 3 games. Smith is projected to draw the start again tonight against a new-look Minnesota team still trying to find their identity. Minnesota is the heavy favorite at -12.5, and that could lead to a drop in minutes during the 4th quarter for Smith if it’s a blowout (as he’s battled an ankle injury). However, I expect Smith to be an active part of the offense, regardless of his fourth quarter presence, as he’s produced this year even in blowouts. Smith also provides us some salary relief with a seemingly safe floor at around 23.5 DKpts.
Others – Jrue Holiday ($6,700), Will Barton ($5,500)
Kevin Durant ($10,300 @ DEN) – Anytime you roster someone over $10K, you typically don’t need much of an explanation or analysis. Durant is a monster, and is already off to a great start this year, averaging 47.8 DKpts per game. The Warriors head into their 3rd away game in a row as -9 favorites with a 228.5 O/U, the largest of the night by far. I expect both Durant and Curry to have big games tonight, but I didn’t want to roster both. Truthfully, Curry may be the “better” play at a cheaper price, but I think Durant is a must play against a Denver team that won’t have much of an answer for the Durantula on defense, as Jokic is more of an offensive big man anyway and will be preoccupied with Draymond. Durant’s size and length also make him a defensive and rebounding threat, against a DEN team that like to shoot the ball. Look for Durant to benefit from DEN quick pace with a few additional rebounds and assists in transition to bolster his performance tonight.
Others – Tobias Harris ($6,400), Will Barton ($5,500)
Eric Moreland ($3,000 vs SAC) – Truthfully, the PF I should be writing up is Zebo himself, Zach Randolph. He’s in my lineup tonight, but what fun is that. He’s your standard mid-priced double double machine playing on a team with a lack of low-post presence.. Right, got it. Now for the FUN pick of the night, Eric Moreland. Remember during the Season Preview article when I told you I love riding low-priced value plays until they ultimately lead to my demise? Well, here’s an example. Let me talk you off the ledge here. Sacramento has not been the definition of low-post dominance, with Willie Cauley-Stein and Skai Labissiere looking lost at times. Jon Leuer, Pistons back-up PF/C is out tonight, leading Moreland into a legitimate role at only $3K. Let’s recall we are just chasing 5x value, i.e. 15 DKpts out of Moreland for him to have “done his job” for us tonight. Moreland only has one game played over 20 mins this year, but he returned 19.75 DKpts. I’ll take my chances with a near lock that he’ll approach that minute total.
Others – Zach Randolph ($5,200), Dirk Nowitzki ($4,600)
KAT Towns ($8,800 vs DAL) – Remember all that salary relief I talked about, well here it is. I love targeting high priced centers, because of the scoring with boards being 1.25pts and blocks at 2 pts. Further, there is a slight boost for a double-double (basically a lock) and triple-doubles (probably not). I’ve rostered two high price centers tonight, but I’m most excited for Towns. KAT is going up against an undersized DAL team that will struggle to contain him. Minnesota is -12.5 favorites with a 214 O/U, a majority of that I anticipate to work through KAT. Dallas is 1-9 this year and will leave Minneapolis at 1-10 after tonight. It’s simply a question of how much will Towns stuff the stat sheet, not will he?
Others – Nikola Jokic ($8,500), Andre Drummond ($8,100)
|PG – De’Aaron Fox||$5,200|
|SG – Dennis Smith Jr.||$5,100|
|SF – Kevin Durant||$10,300|
|PF – Zach Randolph||$5,200|
|C – KAT Towns||$8,800|
|G – David Nwaba||$3,900|
|F – Eric Moreland||$3,000|
|UT – Nikola Jokic||$8,500|
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