Who Yinz Got? Week 7 – Where There’s Smoke, There’s Martavis

And where there’s Martavis there’s usually controversy. Rumors of Martavis Bryant asking for a trade have been circling the sports desks. Although Bryant denies it, there would be some merit behind the request. Number one being that rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster has been out snapping him in 2 WR sets. With the Steelers, yet again, being the center of attention for the media, one of two things will happen: 1.) The offense features Bryant who sets season highs for receptions and yards. Or 2.) The offense continues doing what it has been doing and Bryant continues to wonder if it was worth giving up the icky. Maybe he’ll get traded to Seattle or Denver. Just a thought! On the fantasy front, Chris won in head-to-head points last week, but neither Jag cashed, so they both set their sights to Week 7, hoping for greener pastures and more passing to the left side.  Who Yinz Got?

Quarterback

Payoffs:

Chris – Dak Prescott ($7,300 @ SF) – I’m fired up this week (as you’ll tell throughout the article).  I’m done taking a back seat, being ultra-tactical, etc.  I’m going with my gut, taking guys with high upside, and I will cash.  It starts with Dak in a great matchup.  Coming out of a bye, Dak and the ‘Boys have an extremely favorable matchup.  In week 5, Dak had his way with GB before ultimately getting Rodgered.  Yes, Rodgered, you know what I mean.  In that game, Dak put up 30.74 DKpts, and has increased his fantasy output every week this year.  I’m not sure if he will eclipse the 30 mark again, but he should be comfortable in the mid-twenties.  SF has (possibly) a worse defense than the Pack, and Dak should be featured, even though Zeke will play. Dak has thrown the ball over 36 times in 4/5 games this year, thrown for at least 2 Tuddies in 4/5 games, and eclipsed 250 yards passing thrice.  Oh, he’s also run for 2 touchdowns this year.  Dak at $7.3K is a steal in my book.

DJ – Marcus Mariota ($6,900 @ CLE) –  Last week an athletic QB tore the Brownies a new one, everyone should know that already because I told you to roster him last week (DeShaun Watson). Well this week is no different with Mariota. Marcus has been struggling this season, but has a get right game in Cleveland this weekend against a defense that gives up an average of 25 points per game. Yes, this is still a stretch as Mariota is recently coming off an injury, but any team playing the Browns will put up points. Tennessee is no different, roster “Super” Mario-ta with confidence this week.

 

Jagoffs:

Chris – Drew Brees ($7,600 @ GB) – Week 6, Saints win 52-38…huuuuge week for Brees right?  Wrong.  Brees manufactured only 13.54 DKpts in the enormous win over DET.  What gives?  With Brees at a $7.6K salary, we are hoping for him to score 22.8 DKpts, to eclipse the 3x value we chase as a player’s floor.  Brees has only eclipsed that value ONCE in 5 games so far this year, and I don’t expect him to do so again at Green Bay against a defense that knows the rest of the season is on them.  Hundley isn’t going to take GB to the promise land, but the defense (who have been awful so far this year) could.  I expect McCarthy to have his guys fired up to shut down Brees, who apparently has shut down himself this year statistically.  This Saint will not go marching into my lineup this week.

DJ – Cam Newton ($7,000 @ CHI) –  Guess who’s back? Back again. Cam is back, tell a friend. Cam is back, but not in a good way. I’ve written about Cam multiple weeks as a Jagoff and will continue to write about him in the same light until he either proves me wrong or isn’t able to be rostered, whichever comes first. So far I’m 2 for 2 with Cam Jagoff predictions, Weeks 2 and 3. Remember if you will in those weeks he faced the Bills, a pretty good defense, and the Saints, who at the time couldn’t stop a high school team. He blew in both of those games and now faces a Bears team who on paper sound like a solid matchup. However, Chicago is actually the third best defense in the league against QBs. I’ve created a monster, nobody wants to roster Cam no more…..and that’s a good thing!

Running Back

Payoffs:

Chris – Jerick McKinnon ($6,300 vs BAL) – I said last week that rostering McKinnon would be boom or bust, and he went Boom!  McKinnon went off for nearly 26 DKpts, which at $4.1K last week was an absolute home-run.  That also made back-to-back 25+ DKpt outputs for McKinnon, whose price skyrocketed this week.  Long story?  We knew this would happen.  Short story?  I don’t care.  McKinnon has apparently set his new floor at 25 DKpts, which makes his new $6.3K salary still cheap.  The Ravens defense is allowing 141 rushing yards per game so far this year, 29th in the league.  I expect the Vikings to get McKinnon involved early and often.  Truth be told, I’d pay just about anything for McKinnon this week.  I expect another strong performance and another price hike next week.  Farwell, Jerick!  It was nice rostering you.  It’s me, not you.  I’m sure we’ll meet again down the road once your price returns to earth.

DJ – Christian McCaffrey ($6,100 @ CHI) –  Now with all the Cam hate I just spewed previously, you’re probably wondering why I’m picking McCaffrey here. Well it’s simple, Jonathan Stewart is banged up and Cam is pretty good at dumping the ball off to McCaffrey. Stewart looks like he’ll suit up on Sunday, but at some point McCaffrey needs to take over as the lead back. Stewart is averaging 2.9 yards per carry, that just won’t cut it in the NFL. McCaffrey has been a Swiss Army Knife for the Panthers, succeeding in every scenario they put him in, so why not give him the feature back role? It’ll come soon, but McCaffrey’s ability to gain yards in every way imaginable has me jumping for joy that he’s reasonably priced. Go forth and roster the Swiss (McCaffrey’s a Swiss name right?) Mister himself.

 

Jagoffs:

Chris – Ty Montgomery ($5,500 vs NO) –  If your initial thought was, “Well Rodgers is out, so Ty Mont will see a yuuuuge uptick in fantasy value,” then this is the place for you.  The only way the Pack have a chance the rest of the season is to continue to rely on their passing game.  Nelson and Adams are two legit WRs, and Hundley will need them and the rest of the offense to be involved to move the ball and give Green Bay a chance.  Montgomery has been fighting injury since Week 4, and he still doesn’t appear to be 100%.  Aaron Jones has also performed well, which will take away touches (and probably receptions) from Ty Mont moving forward.  This game could be a feeler for the Packers with their new QB, but I’m not ready to roster any of their guys until we get a look at what Hundley can bring to the table.

DJ – Leonard Fournette ($8,600 @ IND) –  Don’t get me wrong, I’m still on the Fournette bandwagon, but there seems to be a wheel going flat right now. Fournette left last week’s game with an ankle injury and though he is expected to play this week, I would recommend caution in rostering him. The Jags (team, not us) will not want to risk long term injury on the future (and present for that matter) of their franchise which would lead me to believe that Chris Ivory will be getting close to a split of the workload on Sunday. Fournette’s value comes from his workload and if that gets taken away I believe that Fournette will not return value for his salary; therefore not worthy of a spot.

 

Wide Receiver

Payoffs:

Chris – Robert Woods ($4,000 vs ARI) –  This is a fun pick for me.  The risk is high, but again – I’m fired up out here trying to make something happen and salvage the season, so I’m hungry for some homerun hitters.  The easy write-ups are Garcon and Demaryius, who I’ve also rostered this week.  The exciting pick is Woods.  Patrick Peterson will be hawking Sammy Watkins this week, shutting him down, but don’t mistake my Woods pick as a process of elimination type pick.  Woods has been targeted an average of 7 times over the past 4 weeks collectively, including 5 catches for 70 yards last week, leading the team in receptions, targets, and yards.  Woods is showing himself as a favorite Jared Goff target, and I’m jumping on the bandwagon before his price jumps.  Add in a touchdown for Woods this week, and I’ll be circling the bases.

DJ –  Martavis Bryant ($4,300 vs CIN) – My fellow Jag will hits upon the current events of Bryant in the past week (see FLEX below), so I’m here to point out that although having a down year, Martavis does his best work at Heinz Field. His “best” games this year have come at home where he’s averaging 13.6 DKpts per game. Granted that is not a large number, but it is good enough to return on his salary. Another selling point is that Bryant only finds the endzone at home. 12 of his 15 career touchdowns have come at home. Roll him out there and see him catch fire this week against the Bengals.

 

Jagoffs:

Chris – AJ Green ($8,300 @ PIT) –  It’s time to give this Steelers defense the credit they deserve.  They rank first in the league in yards/game, allowing only 154 yards on average.  Pair that with the Bungles ranking 27th in the league in passing on offense, and you have a dud pick in Green.  Full disclosure, I’ll be at Heinz Field Sunday and love rostering Steelers players and specifically not rostering opposing players, but this Jag pick is more than just that.  The Steelers and Bungles (and any division rival for that matter) are known for the 13-9 type game, maybe one touchdown total and a bunch of defense and field goals.  Regardless of the final score though, I don’t anticipate Green doing anything to support being the second most expensive WR of the week.  An easy pass for all you Steeler fans, but a pass nonetheless.

DJ – Mike Evans ($7,600 @ BUF) –   The reasoning behind this pick is two-fold. 1.) Jameis Winston is starting the game with a bum throwing shoulder. This is going to limit his ability his get the ball out on time and with any zip. This could also mean that one hit and it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over under center…yikes! 2.) Buffalo’s defense has been extremely good this year, giving up 14 points per game and 9th in fewest fantasy points allowed to wideouts. Evans requires a ton of targets to return any type of value to his owners (trust me, I have him in a season long league) and without the targets Evans is just a run of the mill receiver. I would avoid him for this week.

 

Tight-End

Payoffs:

Chris – Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($5,000 @ MIA) –  I want to apologize to my boy Sef for calling him a Jag last week.  I didn’t mean it, man.  Although my Payoff last week still had a great week, you were right up there in top TE performances.  Well, I’m back.  With the ‘Lers playing at 4:30PM last week, I had to opportunity (sure?) to watch the Jets and Pats face off.  Yes, the Pats defense is horrendous.  But, Sef was truly the only offensive weapon on the field for the Jets.  Amidst a controversial call, Sef had a fantastic week last week, which could have (and possibly should have) been even better.  A season high in targets last week at 11, Sef looks to continue his fantasy prowess over the past two weeks.  The price is climbing up there, but I feel confident he will find the endzone on Sunday and return value.

DJ – George Kittle ($3,600 vs DAL) –  Truly a statement I never thought I would write, but everything’s coming up Kittle this week. After 17 targets and 11 catches in his past two games, Kittle comes into Sunday’s matchup with Dallas poised for a breakout. One of the worst defenses in the league against the tight end, Dallas will have trouble containing Kittle who will be receiving passes from his college quarterback C.J. Beathard. These two already have a rapport from their days at Iowa and they will showcase it on Sunday.

 

Jagoffs:

Chris – Evan Engram ($4,400 vs SEA) –  This is a tough one.  Engram is coming off of a big week at Denver in a surprise upset.  Seattle has a top 5 passing defense (so does Denver), so there is yet again another tough matchup for a Giants team that is decimated with injuries.  I’m not sure where to stand on the new look G-Men featuring Orleans Darkwa and Evan Engram leading the offensive weaponry, but I know I don’t trust them enough to roster any of those guys.  I could be wrong, I’ve been wrong before (painful admission), but I think Engram is just as likely to repeat his game against Denver as he is to get 0 receptions (see Week 5) and be a total Jagoff, leaving Engram off your roster Sunday is a good call.

DJ – Delanie Walker ($5,800 @ CLE) –  I know I’m rostering Mariota this week and I fully expect Delanie to deliver a solid performance. I just don’t trust that he’ll play a complete game. Walker didn’t practice on Friday and is expected to be a gametime decision on Sunday. Couple that with being the most expensive tight end this week and that’s a recipe for Jagoff. Walker would need a full game of action to return value in this spot and even if he plays I expect him to be on a limited snap count. AVOID!

FLEX

Payoffs:

Chris – Martavis Bryant. ($4,300 vs CIN) –  “Pass-that” is making waves in the media again, after the story broke late last week that he requested a trade.  Whether it’s true or not, Bryant has a point on his usage.  Yes, he let the team down last year with his suspension, but his talent can’t be denied.  This is the perfect game for Bryant, and his price is so low that he is worth taking a risk on.  Tony Brown and Lev Bell will be the focus for the Bungles defense, which could allow Ben to take a few shots downfield to “Pass-that”.  If he hits on just one of those big plays, he will hit value.  Bryant has high upside this week, and I expect him to roll-up into Heinz Field Sunday, burn down the CIN defense and get me in the green.  Nah mean?

DJ – Duke Johnson Jr. ($4,900 vs TEN) –  You know eventually, myself or Chris will make it through a week without talking about Duke Johnson. That, however, is not this week. Johnson is coming off a disappointing performance against the Texans that saw him log the most rushing yards of his season (40), but also the worst pass catching day of his season (3 catches, -1 yard). So rushing up, receiving down, usually good news for a running back, and Johnson is no exception. We know about his prowess catching the ball, now he gets to add to his value by carrying the ball more, what’s not to like? His performance, or lack thereof, in the passing game last week can be attributed to QB Kevin Hogan. Hogan will be back on the bench this week as DeShone Kizer retakes the starting QB job. That means one thing for Duke Johnson, more DKpts! It has been said that he was the best DJ known, so let’s keep that up.

Defense/Special Teams

Payoffs:

Chris – Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,200 vs CIN) –  There is nothing better than a good Steelers defense, and that’s what they have this year.  This game has the potential to be a complete pitchers-dual (wrong sport, but you know what I’m saying), and being a born and bred Steelers fan, there is nothing better – as long as they come out on top.  In all seriousness, this Steelers defense is having a great year.  They rank 7th in the league in total yards allowed, and 4th in the league in points per game allowed.  Comparatively, the Bungles rank 29th in both total offense and scoring.  As you’ve learned by now, this is what they are called when you are from the ‘Burgh.  I will NEVER refer to them by their Goodell given name.  Only by their birth-name, the Bungles.  Heinz Field will be rockin’ Sunday and I expect the 2017 version of the Steel Curtain to make an appearance.

DJ – New Orleans Saints ($3,000 @ GB) –  The Saints defense has actually been pretty solid since Week 3 this season, scoring double digit DKpts in each game. This week will be no different against the Aaron Rodger-less Packers. To be honest that is the main, and frankly only, selling point for me this week when picking a defense. I’ll touch on why below.

 

Jagoffs:

Chris – Seattle Seahawks ($4,000 @ NYG) –  I’m tapped out for this week.  If you want true analysis here, see below from my fellow Jag.  I just continue to refuse to pay for the most expensive defense of the week.  It is too volatile of a position to waste your money there.  Play the matchups and you can put yourself in a position to win without paying for the D/ST1 every week.  Also, as we discussed above, nobody really knows what we have with the G-Men yet.  I’d wait and see before deciding that they any opposing defense is an auto-play.

DJ – Seattle Seahawks ($4,000 @ NYG) –  Lots of insight flying your way right now…they’re expensive. See! Who says you can’t find great analysis from the Fantasy Jags? Well that’s about all I got for them. I find it weird paying more for a defense than a tight end. The Jags (us, not the team) are always cautious when discussing good/bad defensive matchups for the reason that Chris hit on above, it’s too volatile. So many things can go right/wrong that spending your money elsewhere is a safer bet.

Check back Sunday morning for the Jags official lineups.  Follow us on Twitter @fantasyjags412 – we look forward to hearing from you.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s