Who Yinz Got? Week 6 – I Fought Goodell…

And Goodell won! News broke Thursday evening that Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension will be reinstated and take effect after the Cowboys Week 6 bye. This news doesn’t mean anything to DFS players this week as the Cowboys were on a bye, like I said, so we take another step closer to the midway point of the season. A quick look back at Week 5 results will show that DJ once again cashed with his lineup, while Chris is still looking for his first payday of the year. Hang in there Chris, eventually you’ll get to DJ’s level. I believe at one point Chris called himself the superior DFSer (#neverforget). Alright, enough looking backward. Let’s move forward into a successful Week 6 (for somebody). Who Yinz Got?

Quarterback

Payoffs:

Chris – Derek Carr ($5,900 vs LAC) – He’s back (lol).  After missing only a single week with his most recent injury plague, Carr looks poised to return at a deflated price point against a Chargers defense in the middle of the pack for passing defense.  The Chargers have gotten to the QB at an impressive clip, which surely will hurt Carr’s pocket poise as I cannot imagine he is 100% healthy yet, but, the have not created turnover opportunities.  The Raiders have now lost 3 in a row, and I expect Carr and the boys to come out with a chip on their shoulder and bring back the air raid, the perfect opportunity for a stack.  Carr hasn’t put up great fantasy numbers since Week 2, but with even just an average day at the office he will surpass his 3x value I search for in all my guys.

DJ DeShaun Watson ($6,700 vs CLE) –  I think it’s time for me to finally jump on this bandwagon and for the record it’s extremely crowded. Once Watson gained the starting QB job he has been nothing less than spectacular, averaging 28.27 DKpts per week. For perspective, Aaron Rodgers has only eclipsed 28.27 DKpts ONCE this year (28.83). So basically, Watson is consistently outproducing one of the best fantasy QBs of our generation. That’s insane! Watson, much like Rodgers, has the ability to not only throw the ball, but also be dangerous running with the ball. This dual threat option is what makes Watson so valuable. Oh, and one more thing, he’s playing the Browns at home. Lock in Watson for another big day.

 

Jagoffs:

Chris – Kirk Cousins ($6,800 @ SF) – You like that?! You like that!  Please… Kirk Cousins as the 5th most expensive QB of the Week, give me a break.  Cousins is in a good matchup this week, playing against a passing defense in the bottom half of the league.  But, Cousins salary has been hovering in the low $6Ks all year, and gets a boost strictly because of the matchup.  Cousins hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 1, which you can take a couple ways.  For me, I take it as a guy who has a career 2:1 TD to INT ratio who is due.  The Niners are decidedly a mess, but the Redskins passing offense ranks 25th in the league and Cousins is the expensive general marching them down the field (barely).

DJMatt Ryan ($7,000 vs MIA) –  This isn’t 2016 Matt Ryan anymore, he’s back to being a middle of the pack fantasy QB. With a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio, which news flash isn’t good, Ryan will continue his downward trend against the Dolphins. Ryan only has one multiple touchdown game this year, against the Lions in Week 3 when he threw two. He also threw three picks in that game and two in the next one. With Sanu out and Jones, who is going to play, coming off of a hip injury, I see Ryan turning around and handing the ball to Freeman and Coleman all afternoon. The Dolphins offense can’t score so this could be a laugher by halftime also hurting Ryan’s numbers.

Running Back

Payoffs:

Chris Jerick McKinnon ($4,100 vs GB) – This is a boom or bust pick, but at $4.1K it’s a risk that can be taken and defended.  McKinnon had a great game last week, with 95 yards rushing, 1 TD and 6 catches for 51 yards.  I’m not sure expected the same output is appropriate, but the Packers defense hasn’t exactly proved they can slow people down this year.  Dalvin Cook got off to a great start before his season ending injury, and the Vikings O-Line appears to have played a larger role in that success that original thought, as evidenced by McKinnon’s Week 5 performance.  3x value for Jerick is as close to a guarantee you can get this week, but I expect him to exceed that and approach 5x value (20 DKpts).

DJAlvin Kamara ($4,500 vs DET) – I was rostering Kamara this week even before the Adrian Peterson trade. Now this pick looks even better. Kamara has carved out a role as the Saints receiving back in an offense that averages 23 points per game. Sure Mark Ingram figures to be in line for a workload increase as well, but Kamara should also see an increase in carries which can only help his fantasy value. Fresh off a bye week and before that a 25.6 DKpt performance, I’m hoping Kamara can continue his trend of touchdown scoring (one in each of his last two games) and with the increase in touches can return on his very reasonable price tag. For example Duke Johnson, who has a very similar skill set and role, is going for $600 more. Lights, Kamara, Action indeed.

Jagoffs:

Chris – Le’Veon Bell ($9,600 @ KC) –  This is getting ridiculous.  Yes, Bell can put up 30 DKpts on any given week, but $9.6K for inconsistent performance is an easy pass.  Maybe it’s a cop-out to take the most expensive player on the week, and say no thanks, but it’s true.  The Steelers offense can’t decide who is next after AB, who has proven he is the definition of offensive consistency.  Even in an embarrassing performance at home last week, AB still got his.  Bell, wasn’t anywhere to be found.  Blame him, blame Tomlin, blame Haley – I don’t care.  But I’m not going to be caught spending nearly a fifth of my salary on a boom or bust player.

DJLe’Veon Bell ($9,600 @ KC) –  Coming off another less than stellar performance, Bell gets to face the undefeated Chiefs at Arrowhead. If that wasn’t bad enough, his price rose $100 after a 19.3 point week. This was Bell’s third sub 20 point performance in the first five weeks of the year. What will it take for his price to normalize?!?!? Bell will once again fall short of returning value at a running back position that I feel is very deep this week.

Wide Receiver

Payoffs:

Chris Danny Amendola ($5,600 @ NYJ) –  I don’t think rostering a Pats slot receiver at a $5.6K price point requires much explanation, but I’ll humor you all.  Amendola has been targeted at least 7 times in 3 out of 4 games he has played, with the 6 catches being his lowest mark in those games.  The scoring hasn’t been there for Amendola, but he has been right around the 3x value mark in each of the aforementioned games.  Aside from one dud against Houston (in which he was still targeted 5 times), Amendola has been a safe pick.  I’m playing the floor game here, hoping the Amendola can get the volume to support his price point.  Add in a touchdown and you are going to have one happy Jag this week.

DJ –  DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100 vs CLE) – Remember the numbers that I talked about with Watson earlier? Well, the biggest benefactor of those numbers has been DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins is averaging 11 targets per game with Watson under center and that’s not including Week 1 when Watson was brought in in relief and Hopkins had 16 targets. Finally, a quarterback in Houston who knows how to use Hopinks’ talent and Hopkins isn’t taking it for granted, scoring four touchdowns in his last two games. All five of his touchdowns came at home this season and this week he takes on the Browns in Houston which means I’m firing up Hopkins. In my book, Hopkins and Watson are the best stack of the week.

 

Jagoffs:

Chris – Keenan Allen ($7,900 @ OAK) –  This is specifically based on Allen’s inflated price point.  After scoring 10.7 DKpts last week at a $7,200 salary, it obviously makes sense to give him a $700 bump against a better defense.  Allen has not met a 3x value at this price point all year, in fact he hasn’t been close.  His best game was a 22 DKpt output in Week 2 at home against Miami.  In the only two road games the Chargers have had this year, Allen has scored 10.7 DKpts and 14.5 DKpts, both of which would be complete let downs at $7.9K.  The targets are there, eclipsing double digits in 4 of 5 games this, but Allen has only eclipsed 5 receptions once.  Save your money here, and spend up elsewhere.

DJJulio Jones ($8,300 vs MIA) –  Quick! I need some help with this math, 0 touchdowns + 12.9 DKpts per game = $8,300? Really? Julio’s full stat line reads like a mediocre number 4 receiver on a team 19 catches for 295 yards and 0 touchdowns. That’s good for 48th in receptions and 22nd in yards. There are running backs with better receiving numbers than Julio Jones. His name will always cost a pretty penny but let me save you the trouble of spending it on a true fantasy bust this season (so far). Jones hasn’t produced to this point and has been dealing with a hip injury since leaving the Week 4 contest against the Bills. Avoid Jones and spend your money elsewhere.

Tight-End

Payoffs:

Chris – Cameron Brate ($3,900 @ ARI) –  This play was easy for me.  Brate has continued to grow within the Bucs offense, and his price has yet to reflect that.  I’m sure this will be his last week under $4K for a while (even if only by $100), so let’s get in on the value while we can.  Brate has averaged over 4 receptions, 60 yards and a TD over his last three games, living in the high teens in DKpts over the past two weeks.  I don’t expect anything less from Brate this week, especially from an Arizona defense that ranks 27th in passing touchdowns allowed and 22nd in passing yards allowed.

DJCameron Brate ($3,900 @ ARI) –  The tight end position is one where the Jags usually agree and this week is no different. My fellow Jag hits on every reason to roster Brate this week.

Jagoffs:

Chris – Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($4,300 vs NE) –  Classic Jags move here, pick a guy as a payoff in one week, they perform, their price jumps, and all of a sudden it’s time to exit stage left.  Sef is the perfect example of this.  He had a mediocre performance last week, saved by a touchdown.  Sef was still on the receiving end of significant targets and continues to appear to be a focal point in the struggling Jets offense, but his 6 catches for 29 yards and a score last week did not warrant an $800 price jump.  To roster Sef this week, he would absolutely NEED to score a touchdown, which isn’t a guarantee against the divisional bully, even if the Pats defense has been porous.

DJJordan Reed ($5,000 vs SF) –  One of my whipping boys at the position, Reed still isn’t 100% healthy even though he is not listed on the injury report. Along with Julio Jones, Reed has been an utter disappointment this season for both DFSers and season long players alike. This week will be no different. Though the 49ers have faced a soft slate of tight ends recently they were able to shut down Greg Olsen in Week 1 and Jimmy Graham in Week 2. I don’t see Jordan Reed faring much better.

FLEX

Payoffs:

Chris Duke Johnson Jr. ($5,100 @ HOU) –  If Kevin Hogan and the Brownies are going to have any success, it’s going to include a lot of dinks and dunks, check downs, and targets to the slot.  The best DJ I know has averaged 6 receptions and a TD per game over the past three weeks.  Pair that with a Houston defense battling the inJJury bug (yet again), and you have a solid flex play.  DJ is still underpriced at $5,100, having averaged 20.2 DKpts over the past 3 games.  His ceiling may not be the highest, but his floor appears to be.  I look for the Browns to continue working through Johnson both in the running and passing game.

DJDanny Amendola ($5,600 @ NYJ) – My fellow Jag is rostering him as a wideout this week and already has spoken to his high floor which is what I look for in FLEX spots. Like Chris said, rostering a Pats slot receiver is always a smart move. Once Amendola starts finding the endzone his price will be where Chris Hogan’s is ($7,000) and will be tough to roster. Grab him while his price is still reasonable.

 

Defense/Special Teams

Payoffs:

ChrisTampa Bay Buccaneers ($2,600 @ ARI) –  Two things.  One, I completely backed into this pick.  I don’t hate it, but sometimes that the way the DFS cookie crumbles.  Two, my fellow Jag DJ love Carson Palmer long time, so any chance I get to root against him, I’m all for it.  I’m hoping for the AP project to go ary in Glendale, leading to Palmer and the Cards heading to an air-raid, with a few picks (hopefully).  The Bucs haven’t created many turnover opportunities, but they have allowed the 6th least amount of points thus far this year.  I’ll take my chances with the Bucs at $2,600.

DJTampa Bay Buccaneers ($2,600 @ ARI) –  I may love Palmer long time, but fool me once shame on you; fool me twice shame on me. Palmer will get his yardage but will not punch the ball into the endzone. It is known! Couple that with a limited amount of time to get Peterson up to speed in the offense and this is a tasty matchup for Gerald McCoy and Co. I hate agreeing with Chris on so much.

Jagoffs:

Chris – Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,600 vs LAR) –  I expect the Rams to take note of Big Ben’s 5 picks in Week 5, and have Goff turn around and give the ball to Gurley 30 times on Sunday.  Goff and the Rams are coming off of a disappointing loss to the Seahawks last week, and the Jaguars are coming off a high, making the perfect mix for a let down for one of the NFL’s early surprise teams in Jacksonville.

DJHouston Texans ($3,900 vs CLE) –  Someone brought up the injury bug and it has bitten the Texans. Without JJ Watt, the Texans are a middling defense and new Browns QB Kevin Hogan will have time to make decisions and running backs Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson will have holes to run through. Side note I’m hoping for a high scoring game so come on Brownies.

Check back Sunday morning for the Jags official lineups, as well as reactions to each-others rosters.  Follow us on Twitter @fantasyjags412 – we look forward to hearing from you.

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