Ciao! Buonasera! Hello, good evening! After nearly two weeks of traveling the Mediterranean with my brand new wife, I am now cultured enough to randomly throw Italian, French, and Spanish words around like nothing, and I shall. I already knew that I was luckiest man alive for my wife putting up with me, but there was one thing I learned on my honeymoon that will continue to stick with me. Football, should not have to be referred to as “American Football”. Two weeks of grinding through watching soccer matches abroad, just to get my sports fix, and I’m more than ready to taco bout some good ole’ fashion football. Gracias to my fellow jag DJ for the kind words and keeping the site up and running while I was gone. It’s time to get back to the sport we love so much, and lose some Euros. Bonne chance (good luck) yinz guys. Who Yinz Got?
Chris – Jared Goff ($5,300 vs SEA) – I promise I didn’t lose my mind while I was gone. Jared Goff, appears to be legit – or at least good enough to get me 15 DKpts. One thing that can’t be denied about Goff, is that he has protected the ball. So far in 2017, Goff has 7 TDs to 1 INT in 4 games. He has thrown a TD in every game, and is averaging 268 yards per game. This is a test game for Goff, SEA passing DEF is no joke. But thus far, he has proved he can make the plays needed. Gurley has been a workhorse so far this year, and should open up the passing game. Just two weeks ago, Mariota and the Titans offense had great success against SEA, throwing for 225 and 2 TDs (with DeMarco Murray going over 100 yards and 1 TD as well). It can be done, and I don’t think this is your father’s Legion of Boom (well, a young father). I’m jumping on the Goff bandwagon this week.
DJ – Carson Palmer ($5,900 @ PHI) – I know, I know. I’ve gone crazy trusting Palmer at my QB position again after his Week 1 debacle, but just hear me out. Palmer has eclipsed the 300 yard passing mark in all but one game this year and has a touchdown in every game he’s played. That’s consistent enough for me to trust him again. Well that, and the the fact that the Eagles are one of the worst defenses in league against the pass. Truly taking a roll of dice here, but with my fellow Jag picking a Cardinal receiver not named Larry somewhat validates the pick.
Chris – Cam Newton ($6,500 @ DET) – Oh boy, a lot could be discussed here. I leave Newton’s idiotic comments out of this discussion. This week’s NFL sexist distraction aside, Newton has had one good game this year, against a New England team that could easily, and arguable should, be 1-4. Aside from last week @NE, Newton has only reached 2x value once, barely (Week 1) at this price point. Cam hasn’t exactly dazzled in his career against the Lions either, at a 1-1 record, throwing 2 TDs and 4 picks, in 2 games played. The matchup is not great either, as the Lions have the second most picks in the league at 7, despite being in the bottom half in passing yards surrendered. At Newton’s price point, he would need to be around 20 DKpts to meet value, and I don’t see it this week. I can’t wait to hear him Mansplain his way out of a poor performance in his post-game presser.
DJ – Russell Wilson ($7,100 @ LAR) – Settle in everyone, you’re in for a lot of Seahawk bashing/Ram love in this article. Though he has accounted for 7 touchdowns in the past two games, Wilson accomplished this feat against less than subpar defenses. Yes, I do mean less than subpar, what else would you call the Colts and Titans defense? This week is his first true test since Week 2 when he managed only 15 DKpts. He will be running for his life this week behind a bad O-Line and an output like 15 DKpts isn’t worth his cost.
Chris – Carlos Hyde ($6,900 @ IND) – I love the RB position this week. I couldn’t decide between Zeke, Fournette, and Hyde, so I went with all 3. DJ will discuss the only non-Buckeye of the group, so I figured I’d take on Hyde (as Zeke is a given almost every week). Hyde has been consistent all year from a fantasy perspective, although I’d like to see the scoring increase. His price has continued to rise, and rightfully so. After a Week 3 performance of 84 yards rushing and 2 TDs, he came back down to earth for Week 4, but not enough to scare me off, especially with the matchup. Indy has surrendered the 6 rushing TDs this year, second most in all of the NFL, and is in the bottom half of rushing yards allowed. The matchup plays well for Hyde, who has been arguably the best player on a struggling San Francisco offense.
DJ – Leonard Fournette ($7,000 @ PIT) — I’ve been on the Fournette bandwagon for quite some time now. So long, in fact that that my ass is going numb. I’ve spouted about his workload and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield before so this is a new slant. The Steelers at home are always a tough matchup because of their offense. I foresee Jacksonville truly taking the air out of the ball this week to try to limit the time the Steelers offense is on the field. Not a bad idea when your QB is Blake Bortles and when Fournette has scored a touchdown every week.
Chris – Jamaal Williams/Aaron Jones ($5,000 / $5,100 @ DAL) – This is a feel pick. Ty Montgomery is listed as doubtful, and all the suits at ESPN and abroad do not anticipate on him playing Sunday. This leaves the two-headed monster (monster?), of Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones, two sure fire household names. The issue here isn’t going to be their usage, the problem is which one. Most feel that Jones will get more touches and will be used as a receiver out of the backfield. If you are going to play one of these guys, I’d lean Jones. The ceiling is high for him, as the DAL/GB matchup holds the highest over/under of the week, at 53 points (only one other game above 45 points). But with that comes the risk of a complete bust from either one of these guys. Rodgers is poised to control this game through the air, if you want to target Packers, I would look at Nelson or Cobb and pass on these two jags.
DJ – Le’Veon Bell ($9,500 vs JAX) – You know I fully believe Bell will have a good week. This is strictly based on his price. $9,500!?!?! That’s insane, he’s $800 more expensive than any other player this week. Bell will put up numbers this week, just not enough to justify his price tag.
Chris – Jaron Brown ($4,500 @ PHI) – Alright, now I’m getting the feeling you’ve actually think I’ve lost my mind, but Jaron Brown is arguably one of the best value plays this week. Brown is being targeted consistently, and quite often. In 3 games played, he already has over 10 targets in two of them. Last week, he went off for 8 catches for 105 yards and no score, reaching over 5x value. Even with a slight salary increase of $500, Brown only needs to return us around 12-13 points for him to meet value, and he is averaging 14.5 DKpts per game. I’m not rostering Brown for his ceiling, I’m rostering him because of his seemingly safe floor. Another solid game and a score this week, and we will see his price approaching mid to high $5,000s.
DJ – Jordy Nelson ($8,100 @ DAL) – Really not much to say here. Nelson is a beast and as long as he plays a complete game he will score a touchdown. Hell, he’s coming of back-to-back games of of multiple touchdowns and hasn’t scored less than 20 DKpts in any game that he finished. So why should this week be any different? I’ll answer my own rhetorical question, it won’t be. Deploy Nelson with confidence.
Chris – Antonio Brown ($8,400 vs JAX) – This is a tough one. We all know what AB is capable of, but the JAX secondary is legit. They have only allowed 147 yards per game through the air, which is ridiculous in 4 games, allowing only 3 TDs. Brown’s price has dropped below $9K for the first time since Week 1, but for a good reason. Don’t get excited by the price drop, as Brown will still need around 25 DKpts to meet value, and so far his consistency has been something to question. Now, Brown and the Steelers are historically a better team at home, specifically on offense, but they haven’t faced a defense like Jacksonville’s yet this year, and Ben will continue to move the ball around as needed (much to the dismay of AB – re: last week’s tantrum). The Killer B’s will all need to be involved to beat the Jags (the team, not us), and I don’t see Brown returning value at this price point. PS – As a Steelers die-hard, I hope I’m very wrong.
DJ – Michael Crabtree/Amari Cooper ($6,400/$5,700 vs BAL) – I think you’ll hear this again but just to be clear, Derek Carr isn’t playing this week. That means it’s EJ Manuel under center for the Raiders and I have a hunch that will not turn out well for them. Likely to run the ball and control clock this week, Crabtree and Cooper are giant avoids this week. Remember it’s EJ Manuel.
Chris – Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($3,500 @ CLE) – Yes. Seriously, a Jet. Sef, as I will refer to him strictly because his name is longer than my recent cross-Atlantic flight was, makes a ton of sense after taking a deep-dive. Sef missed Weeks 1 & 2, but since returning he has appeared to be a focal point of a lack luster Jets offense. I’m playing the floor game here. Sef, needs 5 catches for 50 yards to pay off for me – add in a score and I’ll consider it a homerun. He is averaging 4.5 receptions per game and 38 yards over the two games he’s played this year. Add in another reception and Sef returns my value here. Admittedly, with the 3 man wrecking crew I’m employing at RB this week, I needed to be frugal with my other positions. But Sef has lead the Jets in targets and catches since returning (thanks DK for doing some homework for me) and I anticipate it will be more of the same against a Browns passing defense that is in the bottom 3rd of the league.
DJ – Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($3,500 @ CLE) – It’s usually a good sign when both Jags pick the same player at a position(see Zach Ertz, Week 1), but it’s no fun! Completely agree with Chris on all accounts (hate saying that) ASJ is a great pick.
Chris – Zach Ertz ($6,200 vs ARI) – I’ve been burned on naming Zach “Tony Gonzalez” Ertz as my jag pick once already this year (after riding him to a Week 1 victory). It’s nothing personally Ertz, I just still refuse to pay over $6K for a TE. Ertz has been impressive this year, and it appears he and Wentz have a rhythm going that should scare opposing teams. Truthfully, if you can get Ertz into your lineup, I think he’s a pretty good play. But he is due for a let down week and his price is getting to a point that he needs to continue having huge games to meet. At this price point, he has only reached 3x value on time, in Week 3 against the Giants, in which he had his least amount of receiving yards in a game this year, but scored a touchdown to push him over the edge. Ertz is receiving 9 targets per game on average, which is huge for a TE, but I think there are decent plays at TE that allow you to pay up at other positions for guys that have a higher ceiling than Ertz.
DJ – Zach Ertz ($6,200 vs ARI) – The tight end position is very top heavy this season. What I mean by that is if Ertz, Gronk or Kelce is eligible they will be more than $1,000 more expensive than everyone else. I am a fan of spending at the tight end position, but I agree with Chris (dammit that’s way too much agreeing) that Ertz is due for a let down this week. To add to what has already been said the Cardinals rank third in the league against TEs. Just some extra food for thought.
Chris – Cooper Kupp ($4,500 vs SEA) – Each week that DK sends me a “Recap Email” (which I love), there is one blurb that always sticks out to me. Every week, and apparently during all of the 2016 NFL season, about 75% of the DK teams that are cashing in tournaments have a stack with their QB (either WR or TE). Why reduce my odds even more but not employing a stack each week. We have talked about this before and will continue to. If you are not stacking with your QB on a weekly basis, then just start forwarding us your entry money. Why put yourself in the pool of only 25% of teams that don’t stack and cash. Enough preaching, let’s talk Kupp real quick. Aside from having fantastic initials (CK), Kupp has proved to be one of Goff’s go-tos in the passing game. This pick carries risk, as Kupp has 2 games scoring over 17 DKpts, but also 2 games scoring under 7 DKpts, but he has been targeted 6-7 times in 3 of 4 games. In a PPR format, Kupp provides me at least an opportunity to get my value, and add in a score and he’s a homerun. The Seahawks passing defense is good, but Goff and company will need to move the ball consistently with short slot passes which should boost targets and receptions for Kupp. By the way, I never thought I’d be writing on multiple Rams offensive players as Payoffs, but here we are.
DJ – Jarvis Landry ($5,800 vs TEN) – You know, eventually, the Dolphins offense is going to get it together and when that happens it will be Landry leading the way. Averaging over 10 targets per game, Landry’s workload certainly isn’t in question (in PPR leagues, thank you DraftKings). Tennessee’s defense allows an average of 275 passing yards per game. Though Landry isn’t known for getting yardage, this could be the week he breaks out the yardage and finds the endzone.
Chris – Baltimore Ravens ($2,900 @ OAK) – Derek Carr isn’t playing. Derek Carr isn’t playing. Derek. Carr. Isn’t. Playing. That and Baltimore leads the league in picks at 9. I honestly don’t have anything else to report.
DJ – Los Angeles Rams ($2,800 vs SEA) – I’m buying into Chris’ love of all things Rams this week. That is a sentence I never thought I would ever write, or think about writing. The Seahawks O-Line is one of the worst in the league, meanwhile the Rams front four is one of the best. That sounds like a formula for disaster for the Seahawks
Chris – Seattle Seahawks ($3,500 @ LAR) – I promise I didn’t go to LA for my honeymoon, and I didn’t get abducted by Aliens who brainwashed me into being a Rams die-hard. But, if I’m going to stack my QB and WR as Rams players, and Todd Gurley is on the field, I figured the Seahawks should be my Jagoff pick. Let’s look at some numbers. In total, Seattle’s defense has actually been middle of the road this year. They are a top passing defense, a bottom half rush defense, and middle of the road in points allowed. Have the Seahawks really passed any tests this year? Their Week 1 game at Green Bay was hard to watch, by both teams. Then, in Week 3 the Titans hung a 33 spot on the Legion of Boom and had over 300 yards of total offense. Aside from that, Seattle has beat the 49ers and Colts, two horrible offenses. The Rams are a top 5 passing offense so far in 2017, and I expect them to handle to Seahawks at home.
DJ – New York Giants ($3,600 vs LAC) – The Giants have been a total let down this year on both sides of the ball. A once proud defense is now a shell of itself and averaging only 3.3 DKpts per game. That’s not good. Couple that with their high price tag (second most expensive defense) and it is a recipe for a bad time.
Check back Sunday morning for the Jags official lineups, as well as reactions to each-others rosters. Follow us on Twitter @fantasyjags412 – we look forward to hearing from you.