Week 1 is in the bags, and after an exciting Sunday of NFL action, both Jags writers come limping into the week, a little lighter in the wallet I might add. First things first, I (Chris) am clearly the superior DFSer after a Week 1 victory over my fellow Jag to the tune of 0.52 DKpts; a blow-out. Second things second, we both missed the money line by less than 3 DKpts. Third things third, and in all seriousness, we both had solid Week 1 performances that we are happy with. Multiple picks of ours returned significant value, but a few blunders cost us. Lastly, RIP to the Log Jammer at Kennywood, ending its prestigious run of getting Yinzers wet since ’75 (anti-yoi). Who Yinz Got?
Quarterback
Payoffs:
Chris – Drew Brees ($7,700 vs NE) – Typically, I try my best to avoid the most expensive QBs in a given week. But this matchup is not one I want to miss. NO vs. NE had an opening point total of 53.5, which has adjusted up to 56 as of Friday night. This is going to be a shoot-out, and Brees (or Brady) should be in play. Brees threw for 291 yards last week, completing 27 of 37 passes. It’s no secret the Saints offense is pass-heavy, but with the addition of AP in the offseason, we didn’t know if Sean Payton would mix it up. He didn’t. Brees completed passes to 7 different players last week, making a stack a bit of a guessing game. But Brees comes into this match-up with a 123 passer rating in his career against NE, the highest against any opponent he has faced.
DJ – Jameis Winston ($6,300 vs CHI) – Hurricane Irma derailed this fantasy payoff last week causing a postponement of the match. This week though, the high powered Bucs offense hosts the woeful Bears defense. Now Chicago did shut down Matt Ryan last week, but I chalk that up to an indoor team playing their first game of the season outside and exposed to the elements. That being said, the Bears still gave up 308 passing yards during a week where defenses were in the spotlight. Look for Winston to take advantage of the soft coverages and find his stack partners Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson for 300 plus yards and 3 total touchdowns (2 passing 1 rushing).
Jagoffs:
Chris – Marcus Mariota ($6,400 vs. JAX) – Mariota had an average game last week against OAK. He threw for 256 yards and rushed 3 times for 26 yards, but had no TDs. He still returned decent value, but there are plenty of other QB plays this week that have me licking my chops. Even though JAX played the seemingly hopeless Texans, their defense is legit and they proved it during Week 1. Mariota has good splits against the Jags (not us, them), but this ain’t your father’s Jacksonville Defense. Last week they only gave up 7 points and 203 yards, and I look for them to give Mariota fits in Week 2. Matchups for QBs and Vegas projected point totals typically dictate my QB selections, and Mariota is in a bad matchup with a low 43.5 over under for Sunday’s meeting in Tennessee.
DJ – Cam Newton ($6,500 vs BUF) – Did anyone watch Cam Newton last week? Yikes! Maybe that surgically repaired shoulder isn’t fully recovered after all, or maybe Cam just isn’t that good of a QB. Newton’s value in DFS stems from his ability to tuck and run. He only ran the ball 6 times for 3 yards against a terrible San Francisco defense. He threw for two touchdowns, one of which was a one yard dump off to Jonathan Stewart. He completed only 56 percent of his passes and faces a Bills defense that can get after him and cover the receivers. Avoid Cam Newton
Running Back
Payoffs:
Chris – Christian McCaffrey ($5,600 vs. BUF) – I didn’t intend to fall for McCaffrey this early, but crazier things have happened (have you heard T-Swift’s new music?). The hype was that Carolina would operate through McCaffrey, and Week 1 proved their gameplan is to get this gritty playmaker the ball. McCaffrey was on field for the vast majority of plays and ended the day with 13 rushes for only 47 yards, but he did also have 5 receptions for 38 yards (on 7 targets). It’s clear McCaffrey is the focal point of the offense, and at a $5.6K price, I think he can reach 3x easily. Aside from a fumble during Week 1, MCC (yeah, you know me) was on pace for a near 15 DKpt output. Add in a touchdown last week and he would be priced in the mid-sixes. I’m taking MCC before his price sky rockets to meet the hype.
DJ – Ty Montgomery ($5,800 @ ATL) – Ty Montgomery had a couple question marks coming into the season, one of which was his usage. Well question no more, Montgomery was on the field for 90% of snaps, including returning after leaving the with a potential injury. Montgomery scored a rushing touchdown and caught all 4 of his targets for 39 yards. Montgomery wears number 88 because he used to be a receiver, why is that important you might ask? Well smartass, Atlanta has given up the most TD and receptions to running backs last season. Sounds like a no brainer to me.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Kareem Hunt ($6,800 vs. PHI) – I am ready to receive the mockery that will come for this pick after Hunt had a record-breaking Week 1 performance. But honestly, that’s why I want to avoid him this week. At $6.8K, to reach 3x value he is going to need to have another stellar performance, and I imagine the fighting “Doug Pederson’s” made him the focal point of their defense film sessions this week. I recognize this pick could be a complete gaffe, but I expect Hunt’s ownership to be through the roof. At nearly $7K, I think your salary can best be spent on other players.
DJ – Devonta Freeman ($7,300 vs GB) – Freeman’s fantasy week was salvaged by a touchdown. Without said touchdown, last week was a dreadful beginning to the season for the Falcons running back as he only attempting 12 rushes and managing only 37 yards. Freeman wasn’t utilized in the passing game either losing most of the receiving work to Tevin Coleman. In what looks like a committee at the running back position, Freeman doesn’t get any favors facing the Packers defense who gave up 90 yards last week to the Seahawks, 40 of which was Russell Wilson. With the matchup against Green Bay looking like a good matchup on paper people will expect a bounce back from Freeman, but I don’t see it.
Wide Receiver
Payoffs:
Chris – Antonio Brown ($9,400 vs. MIN) – There is much to say here. Any time you can construct a lineup with AB in it, you do it. Being from Pittsburgh (and we talked about this last week), it’s no secret that the Steelers operate more effectively at Heinz Field. Last week in an ugly win @ CLE, Brown caught 11 passes for 182 yards. Brown averages 87.6 yards per game at home, compared to only 80.4 yards per game on the road. But the stat I’m chasing in his splits is the 34 TDs scored in the Burgh compared to only 16 outside of the 412. Lock in the double-yoi, if you can make it happen, AB is a must start – no questions asked.
DJ – Adam Thielen ($5,000 @ PIT) – The new look Vikings offense was impressive on Monday night. Granted they were playing Saints who might as well put tackling dummies on the field when they don’t have the ball and might see better results, but the offense is for real. Thielen exploded for a line of 9 catches for 159 yards. He did fail to find the endzone, but even without that he scored 27.7 DKpts. The Steelers defense isn’t all that impressive, the seven sacks were a product of a young QB holding the ball wayyyyyyy too long. Plus the ‘lers love to play soft zone coverages and what beats soft zones? That’s right; slants, drags and quick outs beat zones and all of those are staples of the slot receiver. Adam Thielen is the slot receiver for the Vikings. Look for the Vikings offense to continue their return to fantasy relevance. NOTE: This may change when Sam Bradford’s status for Sunday’s game is solidified. If he plays lock in Thielen, if not remove him from the roster.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Bradin Cooks ($8,200 @ NO) – I typically love the read-between-the-lines type plays, but Cooks is absurdly overpriced this week. To reach the 3x value I’m searching for, Cooks would need a MONSTER game. Yes, there is some added motivation for both Cooks and the Patriots as a whole, after their Week 1 blunder, but I can’t see Cooks putting up 25+ DKpts. New Orleans is well aware of Cooks and his abilities, and I anticipate them focusing on his deep threat ability. And yes, New England is expected to put up a lot of points against the Saints on Sunday. However, I’m not sold on Cooks as the 3rd highest priced WR for Week 2 with the variety of options that Brady has at his will.
DJ – Dez Bryant ($6,600 @ DEN) – Let me get something off my chest. I have never had Dez Bryant on any of my fantasy ventures (DFS and season long). He plays on an offense that wants to focus on running the ball and now has second year QB that doesn’t quite have the ability to throw the ball into tight spaces. All of this leads to Bryant being fairly touchdown dependent. Adding to Bryant’s misfortune is the matchup against the “No Fly Zone” of the Denver Broncos defense. Consistently ranked as one of the top passing defenses of the past few seasons, the Broncos feature two shutdown corners in Chris Harris and Aqib Talib. According to NFL.com they ranked as the third and ninth best corners respectively last season. Grab some pine Dez.
Tight-End
Payoffs:
Chris – Jared Cook ($3,300 vs. NYJ) – The Raiders may end up being our fantasy go-to until their prices correct themselves. We’ve seen both Cooper and Crabtrees prices jump significantly after Week 1, and Oakland appears committed to passing the ball. Admittedly, Cook is a bit of a calculated punt, but Carr through the ball 32 times, with 5 targets (and receptions) going to Cook. In a PPR format, I’ll take the chance on Cook’n up another 5 catches for 56 yards, meaning he hits that 3x value we try to chase every week.
DJ – Travis Kelce ($5,100 vs PHI) – Usually not a proponent of spending this kind of money on a tight end, but with the ultimate payoff from last week, Zach Ertz, being the third most expensive tight end, I see Kelce as being a bargain. Last week, the Chiefs offense didn’t need to rely on Kelce as much as they had to in the past, only targeting him 7 times (he did get a rushing attempt but can’t count on that week to week). With the home opener slated against a much better defense in Philadelphia, I see the Chiefs offense going back to what they do best, feeding the big man Travis Kelce.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Greg Olsen ($5,500 vs. BUF) – Olsen is in a decent spot here. He has averaged a TD in 2 career games against the Bills. But, at such a high price, I find it hard to justify spending up here. The tight-end pool is typically the last position to correct itself on DK from a pricing standpoint, so why spend up. As written above, the new Panthers offense appears to operate through McCaffrey. Olsen may receive red zone targets, but the prospect of him meeting a 3x value seems out of reach. The floor is there with Olsen, but as you’ve learned by now – that’s not what I search for, specifically in a player with the second highest salary at his position.
DJ – Jordan Reed ($5,200 @ LAR) – The tight end salaries, in my opinion, are fairly logical this week. Reed would usually be one of the most expensive tight ends in normal weeks; therefore many people will roster him with the thought of him being a bargain. Well think again people, this is why I win the big bucks (big bucks still yet to be won). The Redskins offense is still trying to find themselves after letting their top two receivers from last season walk in free agency. Those two combined for over 2,000 yards last season. Couple that with a running attack that was nonexistent in week 1 and a defense that is getting arguably the best defensive tackle in football back this week in Aaron Donald (Hail to Pitt) and it is a formula for another pedestrian performance from the Redskins offense. Oh and Reed is also playing through a fractured toe. Not much to like here.
FLEX
Payoffs:
Chris – LeGarrette Blount ($4,400 @ KC) – “Pass that” is the definition of a homerun hitting slash punt FLEX play. Blount has the ability to rush 10 times for 10 yards, collect his check, and go on his merry way. But, he also has the joint ability for those carries to be strictly goal-line, and score multiple times a game. Blount is a high risk, high reward play and KC didn’t prove they can stop the short run (see Gillislee Week 1 TDs). Hopefully the Eagles will have Wentz turn around and give the ball to LGB inside the 20. This one could backfire, but I have a feeling we see at least 1 TD which will help Blount get me that green.
DJ – Tyreek Hill ($6,200 vs PHI) – When you look up FLEX in a fantasy dictionary, or when you Google it because let’s be real who uses dictionaries anymore, you’ll see a picture of Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs offense featured him and Kareem Hunt last week and they both showed up. Andy Reid loves to find creative ways to get Hill the ball in space, which is backed up by a record that Hill set last week. Hill is the only player in NFL history to score a touchdown of more than 60 yards in 5 straight games dating back to last season. Although this record is very arbitrary, it shows that Hill is always worthy of a roster spot with this homerun ability.
Defense/Special Teams
Payoffs:
Chris – LA Chargers ($2,800 vs. MIA) – This is strictly a match-up play. The Chargers D was (generously) in the middle of the pack during Week 1, but Miami is NOT coming off of a true bye. This is a Week 1 game for them, in an offense with a brand new QB in Cutler who should be in the booth. The Chargers are only 2.5 point favorites as of Friday night, but I look for Cutler and the Phins WR core to go through some growing pains, and this is a good week to exploit the matchup. Here’s to hoping for a few sacks and turnovers while keeping MIA out of the endzone.
DJ – Baltimore Ravens ($3,700 vs CLE) – After seeing what the Steelers defense was able to do against the Browns offensive line, I have the utmost confidence that the Ravens can do that and more. That would be 7 sacks, a pick and a touchdown. Once again rolling the dice with an expensive defense, but if there was a time to gamble it would be against the Browns.
Jagoffs:
Chris – Baltimore Ravens ($3,700 vs. CLE) – I love it. One man’s trash, is another man’s treasure. After watching the Steelers Brown Week 1 matchup, I learned one thing. This Browns offense has explosive potential. The Brownies were a Kenny Britt dropped ball away from making their Week 1 matchup very interesting against the Steelers. Kizer proved he has good poise and can run the offense. The Ravens had a cake-walk against the Bungles last week and I’m not saying I expect the Browns to come out and stick it to the Ravens, but Kizer proved enough to me last week that I’m staying away from this high priced defense this week. PS – That Steelers D/ST touchdown was a blocked punt in the endzone, nothing to do with Kizer.
DJ – Tennessee Titans ($3,300 @ JAX) – Leonard Fournette is the real deal. He put up 134 total yards on what is usually a very stingy defense in the Texans when JJ Watt is healthy. The Titans don’t have anyone on the level of Watt, not many teams do, which will allow Fournette to run for days against them. Let’s just hope that Jacksonville can get out to an early lead and not have Blake “Pick 6” Bortles throw the ball too much. This may be anti-yoi material, but who cares defense doesn’t win fantasy championships.
Check back Sunday morning for the Jags official lineups, as well as reactions to each-others rosters. Follow us on Twitter @fantasyjags412 – we look forward to hearing from you.
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